New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 27 2026
The New York Mets visit the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., on Sunday, September 27, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. New York enters at 73-87 overall and 37-42 on the road, while Washington is 76-84 overall and 38-41 at home. The Nationals sit fourth in the NL East, three games ahead of the fifth-place Mets, and enter the weekend finale riding a three-game winning streak. Washington won Friday's series opener 7-6, while Saturday's game had not been completed when this preview was prepared and is excluded from the analysis. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.
Starting Pitchers
New York is scheduled to start Sean Manaea, who enters at 6-7 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP through 144.2 innings. He has allowed 145 hits and 23 home runs while recording 141 strikeouts against 43 walks. Washington counters with DJ Herz, who has made only a limited appearance this season and enters at 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over four innings. He has allowed five hits and one home run while striking out four and walking two. The Mets have the much larger body of work from their starter, but a 4.67 ERA and 23 home runs allowed leave some vulnerability against a Washington offense with substantially better season-long production. The Nationals' starter is the bigger unknown because four innings are nowhere near enough to establish a reliable season-long performance level.
Mets Try to Snap Their Two-Game Losing Streak
New York enters Sunday at 73-87 overall and has gone 2-3 across its last five completed games. The Mets lost Friday's opener 7-6 after falling 3-1 at Texas. Before those defeats, New York recorded consecutive road victories over the Rangers by scores of 7-2 and 6-3. The other loss during the five-game stretch was a 7-2 defeat against Philadelphia. New York has scored 22 runs while allowing 22 during that span.
The Mets are batting .239 with 688 runs, 1,289 hits and 199 home runs. They own a .309 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. New York's pitching staff has produced a 4.16 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 1,431 strikeouts against 548 walks while limiting opponents to a .240 batting average.
Pitching is where New York owns its most significant season-long advantage. The Mets have a half-run advantage in ERA and a substantially lower WHIP and opponent batting average than Washington. The concern is an offense that has been inconsistent throughout the season. New York has scored 126 fewer runs than Washington, and the Mets trail the Nationals in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage. They will need to capitalize on an inexperienced opposing starter rather than allowing Washington's offense to dictate another game.
Nationals Offense Provides a Significant Statistical Edge
Washington enters Sunday at 76-84 and has won three consecutive completed games. The Nationals defeated New York 7-6 Friday after taking consecutive road games against Detroit by scores of 4-2 and 3-1. Washington had previously lost 9-2 at Detroit and 5-3 at St. Louis. The Nationals have scored 19 runs and allowed 23 across those five contests, although 14 of those runs allowed came in the two losses.
Washington's offense has been significantly more productive than New York's over the full season. The Nationals are batting .247 with 814 runs, 1,344 hits and 208 home runs. They have a .322 on-base percentage and .423 slugging percentage. The pitching staff has been the weakness, producing a 4.66 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 1,266 strikeouts against 597 walks while allowing opponents to hit .253.
The Nationals' offensive advantage is difficult to overlook. Washington has scored 126 more runs than New York and owns advantages of eight points in batting average, 13 points in OBP and 29 points in slugging percentage. The Nationals have also hit nine more home runs. Their pitching creates considerable risk, especially with Sunday's limited sample from the scheduled starter, but the offense gives Washington the ability to overcome those deficiencies.
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction
Pick: Washington Nationals Moneyline
Washington gets the moneyline selection in what should be one of Sunday's more competitive matchups. New York has the more established starting pitcher and owns better full-season pitching numbers, but the offensive difference strongly favors the Nationals. Washington has scored 814 runs compared with only 688 for New York while posting the better batting average, OBP and slugging percentage. The Nationals have also won three straight and took Friday's opener 7-6. Washington's starting pitching situation introduces significant volatility, but the Mets' scheduled starter carries a 4.67 ERA and has surrendered 23 home runs, giving the Nationals' stronger offense opportunities to produce. With the teams separated by only three games in the standings, Washington's offensive edge and recent momentum make the Nationals the preferred side.
Pick: Over 8.5 or Lower
The over is the preferred total if the market posts 8.5 or lower. Friday's opener produced 13 runs, and Sunday's pitching matchup presents enough uncertainty to create another potentially productive game. New York's scheduled starter owns a 4.67 ERA, while Washington's starter enters with a 9.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP through only four innings. That Washington sample is far too small to treat the ERA as predictive, but it does little to create confidence in an under. The Nationals have scored 814 runs this season, while their pitching staff owns a 4.66 ERA and has allowed opponents to hit .253. With vulnerabilities on both sides of the pitching matchup, Over 8.5 or lower provides the better position.
Final Picks: Washington Nationals Moneyline and Over 8.5 or Lower
This preview was completed on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.