New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 19, 2025
In our Yankees vs. Orioles prediction, the New York Yankees are second in the AL East with an 85-67 record so far. They are having young right-hander Will Warren get the start as he is coming off a loss against the Boston Red Sox, where he pitched 5.0 innings and allowed six runs on 10 hits with one walk and one strikeout.
The Baltimore Orioles are struggling as they are sitting in fifth place in the AL East with a 72-80 record entering this game. Left-hander Trevor Rogers takes the ball and did not factor into the decision last time out against the Toronto Blue Jays, where he pitched five innings and gave up an unearned run on three hits with four walks and six strikeouts.
Cover the diamond — MLB picks for the New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles in a fast read.
WRITTEN BEFORE THURSDAY’S GAME
Yankees Looking to Still Win AL East
The New York Yankees have been an outstanding offensive team as they are best in the sport with a .785 team OPS while averaging 5.22 runs per game. New York has been able to hit for an incredible amount of power as they are the best in the majors with 258 total home runs hit. Left fielder Cody Bellinger has been hitting at an amazing level as he has a .827 OPS with 29 home runs, 97 RBI, 82 runs scored, and 12 steals while being caught two times.
Will Warren has been struggling, according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the ninth percentile in average exit velocity, 10th percentile in chase percentage, 14th percentile in hard hit percentage, and 14th percentile in hard hit percentage. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, sinker, sweeper, changeup, curveball), and his fastball has been his best pitch as hitters have a .211 batting average and .361 slugging percentage with seven home runs and 66 strikeouts against it. Warren faced the Orioles twice this season already as he is 0-1 in 9.2 innings and allowed six runs on 12 hits with one hit by pitch, four walks, and 11 strikeouts.
Injury Report for New York
- Pitcher Brent Headrick: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Jonathan Loaisiga: Back (OUT)
- Pitcher Clarke Schmidt: Forearm (OUT)
- Third baseman Oswaldo Cabrera: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher Jake Cousins: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Gerrit Cole: Elbow (OUT)
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Orioles Looking to Play Spoiler
The Baltimore Orioles are doing a decent job at the plate as they are 20th in the bigs with a .706 team OPS while scoring 4.25 runs per game. The team has been middle-of-the-road in terms of stealing bases as they are 14th in MLB with 113 steals while being caught 35 times. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson has been swinging the bat well as he is posting a .273/.347/.438 slash line with 16 home runs, 64 RBI, 83 runs scored, and 26 steals while being caught four times.
Trevor Rogers is pitching well this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 86th percentile in xERA, 84th percentile in barrel percentage, 82nd percentile in walk percentage, and 77th percentile in chase percentage. He has five different pitches (fastball, changeup, sinker, slider, sweeper) and his fastball has been his best pitch as hitters have a .163 batting average and .240 slugging percentage with two home runs and 42 strikeouts. Rogers has not faced the Yankees since the 2021 season so this will be a good test for him.
Injury Report for Baltimore
- Pitcher Trevor Rogers: Toe (Questionable)
- Pitcher Albert Suarez: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Shawn Dubin: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Brandon Young: Hamstring (OUT)
- Pitcher Scott Blewitt: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Felix Bautista: Shoulder (OUT)
- Catcher Gary Sanchez: Knee (OUT)
- Catcher Adley Rutschman: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Zach Eflin: Back (OUT)
- Pitcher Grayson Rodriguez: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Colin Selby: Hamstring (OUT)
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles Pick
Spread Pick for New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
- New York Yankees ML (5 units)
Will Warren and Trevor Rogers have been pitching at a similar level, so we need to dive a bit deeper than the starting pitchers for this game. The pitching over the previous 30 days as a whole shows a slight divide as the Yankees are 15th in baseball with a 4.24 team ERA in that span, while the Orioles are 18th with a 4.33 team ERA in the last 30 days. The ability to hit with runners in scoring position shows a sizable gap between these teams. New York is ninth in baseball with a .774 team OPS with runners in scoring position, while Baltimore is down at 21st place with a .729 team OPS in those chances. The Yankees are 3-2 in their last five games, so go with the New York Yankees to secure the victory here.
Over/Under Pick for New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
- OVER (4 units)
Both bullpens are struggling throughout the course of the season as the Yankees are 23rd with a 4.57 bullpen ERA while the Orioles are 25th with a 4.59 reliever ERA so far. Since the All-Star break, these teams are hitting at a strong level as New York is sixth with a .775 team OPS in 56 games, while Baltimore is 20th with a .715 team OPS in their 57 games since the break. All in all, go with the OVER to hit.
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