New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for Tuesday August 18, 2026

The New York Yankees travel to Baltimore to face the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET on August 18, with MLB.TV providing coverage. New York enters the matchup at 69-55 overall and 38-28 on the road, while Baltimore is 61-63 overall and 32-30 at home. The Orioles have the better recent form with wins in four of their last five games, while the Yankees have dropped three of five. Baltimore also holds a slight 54.9% edge in the matchup predictor. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and betting analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Will Warren gets the start for New York with an 8-6 record, 4.42 ERA, and 1.41 WHIP through 118 innings. The right-hander has allowed 125 hits and 18 home runs while recording 117 strikeouts against 41 walks. Baltimore counters with Shane Baz, who enters at 4-12 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across 139.1 innings. Baz has surrendered 143 hits but only 10 home runs while striking out 122 and walking 47. Neither starter has been dominant statistically, although Baltimore has a modest advantage in both ERA and WHIP from its scheduled starter.

New York's Pitching Gives the Yankees an Edge

New York comes into Tuesday at 69-55 and sits second in the American League East, 5.5 games behind Tampa Bay. The Yankees are 38-28 away from home but have gone just 2-3 over their last five games. They snapped a three-game losing streak Sunday with a 4-3 extra-inning road victory over Toronto after dropping the previous two games of that series and the finale of their series against Seattle.

The Yankees are batting .229 as a team with 551 runs, 940 hits, and 171 home runs. Their .308 on-base percentage is relatively modest, but a .408 slugging percentage reflects their ability to generate power. The pitching staff has been considerably stronger, carrying a 3.26 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while holding opponents to a .225 batting average.

Pitching is the clearest statistical advantage for New York in this matchup. The Yankees have allowed significantly fewer baserunners than Baltimore over the course of the season, and their 3.26 team ERA is nearly a full run better than the Orioles' 4.21 mark. New York also owns a 5-2 advantage in the season series, giving the Yankees another reason for confidence entering Camden Yards.

Baltimore Brings Strong Recent Form Home

Baltimore enters the series at 61-63 overall and 32-30 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are fourth in the AL East but have begun to build some momentum, winning four of their last five and each of their last three. They completed a three-game road sweep of Tampa Bay with victories of 6-5, 4-3, and 10-2.

The Orioles have a .237 team batting average with 563 runs, 974 hits, and 148 home runs. Baltimore owns a .321 on-base percentage and .397 slugging percentage. The pitching numbers haven't been nearly as impressive, with the Orioles posting a 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .253 opponent batting average.

Baltimore's offensive numbers compare favorably with New York in several areas. The Orioles have the higher batting average and on-base percentage and have scored 12 more runs despite hitting 23 fewer home runs. The concern is whether the pitching staff can keep the Yankees' power under control. Baltimore's recent surge makes this a much closer matchup than the overall records suggest, but its season-long pitching numbers remain a significant weakness.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

New York is the preferred side despite Baltimore's impressive recent run. The Yankees have the stronger overall record, a winning 38-28 road mark, and a substantial season-long advantage on the mound with a 3.26 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Baltimore has won four of five, but its 4.21 ERA and .253 opponent batting average leave considerably less margin for error. New York has also taken five of the first seven meetings between these AL East rivals. Back the Yankees on the moneyline if the eventual price remains reasonable.

Pick: Over 8.5

Take the over if the total is set at 8.5. Both scheduled starters enter with ERAs of at least 4.00, and Baltimore's pitching staff has struggled to consistently suppress offense this season. New York brings considerably more home-run power with 171 long balls, while Baltimore has actually scored slightly more runs overall. The Yankees' pitching numbers make the under tempting, but the starting matchup creates enough opportunity for both offenses to contribute. Over 8.5 is the preferred total, while a move to 9.5 would significantly reduce the value.