New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction -Saturday, September 20, 2025
American League East foes continue on with their three games series, so grab our Yankees vs. Orioles and settle in for their Saturday night tilt. New York (86-67, 2nd in A.L. East) has lined up LHP Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.11 ERA) to take the hill in this matchup. Baltimore (72-81, 5th in A.L. East) is going to have RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (10-8, 4.39 ERA) as their starter. The first pitch from Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:05 EST and be sure to get all of our top MLB Predictions to increase your bankroll!
(This was published prior to the conclusion of Friday’s games.)
Yankees close in on clinching
The Yankees came into this series sitting three games back of Toronto in the East while also maintaining a hold on the top Wild Card spot in the American League. Their magic number to clinch a playoff spot before Friday’s action was six. Through 153 games, their pitching staff was 9th in the league with a 4.03 ERA and 8th with a 1.27 WHIP. Opponents have hit .233 against them and they’ve struck out 1,360 batters, second most in the A.L. Yankees’ starters 61-36 with a 3.68 ERA, second best among American League rotations. The bullpen has not been as strong, with a 4.56 ERA, 41 saves and 21 wins.
No offense has been more productive in the American League than the Yankees, whose 801 runs are 43 more than the next closest team. They are hitting .250 with 258 home runs and 130 stolen bases. Aaron Judge is second in the A.L. with 48 home runs, third with 104 RBIs and he leads the league with a .327 batting average. In September, the outfielder was hitting .367 with five home runs, seven RBIs and 17 runs over 16 games. Cody Bellinger is hitting .273 with 29 home runs and he’s seventh in the league with 97 RBIs with 14 RBIs in his last 15 games.
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Starter spotlight
- Carlos Rodon makes his 32nd start of the season with the team owning a 17-14 record when he goes.
- He lost his last two starts, allowing two runs, five hits and a walk while throwing exactly six innings in both.
- Has allowed two earned runs or less in eight straight starts.
- Opponents are hitting .189 against him with 21 home runs and 71 walks.
- Lifetime, Rodon is 1-3 with a 5.15 ERA in eight games against them.
Orioles ready to pack it in
The Orioles were lined up against the Yankees in seven of their last ten, but after getting shut out, 7-0, in Thursday’s opener, it seems they might not have enough steam to make things tough on their division rival down the stretch. The pitching staff ranks 12th in the league with a 4.60 ERA through 152 games, accompanied by a 1.37 WHIP. They’ve been able to strike out 1,270 batters while opponents have hit .259 against them. Baltimore’s starters had a 47-50 record prior to Friday’s game, with a 4.62 ERA and their relievers had 37 saves, 25 wins and also a 4.62 ERA.
Baltimore’s offense hasn’t done the team any favors either, hitting .239 as a team with 651 runs, both ranking 11th in the American League. Over the last month, the team hit just .230 with only 104 runs over 28 games. Their 181 home runs are tied for seventh in the league and their 113 stolen bases also rank seventh. Gunnar Henderson leads the team with a .273 batting average, 64 RBIs, 83 runs and 26 stolen bases. Jackson Holliday is the only other qualifying batter on the team, and he leads the club with 17 home runs while hitting .250 with 17 stolen bases.
Starter spotlight
- Tomoyuki Sugano is making his 29th career start and the Orioles are 16-12 with him on the mound.
- Last time out, the rookie allowed a run and four hits over six innings at Toronto but did not factor into the decision.
- Has not allowed a walk in his last two starts and given up only three in his last five.
- Teams hit .273 against the right-hander, with 28 home runs.
- He’s faced the Yankees twice already, going 1-0 with a 3.14 ERA and 12 Ks over 8.2 innings.
Yankees vs. Orioles Picks
Spread Pick for Yankees vs. Orioles
- Yankees -1.5 (-115) (5 units)
Following their shutout win on Thursday. New York owned a 4-3 series advantage on the season. The Yankees finish their regular season playing the Orioles, the White Sox and then the Orioles again. Clinching a postseason spot is only a matter of time for them, but they still would like to possess the top Wild Card spot, so winning now would help them do that sooner. They have the right horse on the hill for them in Rodon, who has been excellent over the last two months. He’s gone 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing no more than two runs in any of those outings. Baltimore is playing the string out and their lineup has weakened as the season progressed. While Sugano is 7-4 at home this season, he has a 4.32 ERA, teams are hitting .266 against him and he’s allowed 17 home runs at home. Not good when facing the powerful Yankees who have won all games against the Orioles this season by at least two runs.
Take the Yankees with the run line.
Over/Under Pick for Yankees vs. Orioles
- Over 8.5 (4 units)
This is a tricky play. On one hand, we have the Yankees, who possess the most potent offense in the league. On the other hand, the Orioles who have come up short at nearly every point this season. They were just shut out on Thursday and now must face Rodon, who has given up a combined 13 runs over his last eight starts. However, the Yankee starter has gone exactly six innings in each of his last four starts, so I wouldn’t expect a full game effort here, especially with the postseason approaching. That said, Baltimore should be able to at least get a couple off the New York bullpen. Before Friday, the Yankees' offense scored seven runs or more in three straight games, so they are rolling and should be able to handle the bulk of the load here.
Take the over.
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