New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 13, 2025
The MLB action continues on Saturday with a rivalry showdown between the New York Yankees (82-65) and the Boston Red Sox (81-67), and we’ve got you covered with our Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 4:10 ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Yankees Sit Atop the Wild Card
It has been an up-and-down season for the New York Yankees, which has seen them battle through injuries and underwhelming play at times. However, the Bronx Bombers find themselves right in the thick of the playoff race as we enter the home stretch of the 2025 regular season. New York enters Saturday’s game at 82-65, which puts them 3.0 games out of the divisional race and first in the wild card (+3.0 GB). At this point, the Yankees are basically a lock to make the playoffs (-10000), while sitting at +850 to win the World Series.
New York notched a 4-1 victory over Boston on Friday night, and it was none other than Aaron Judge paving the way with a solo home run – his 47th. Ryan McMahon went 1-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored. Luis Gil (6.0 IP IP) was lights out in his start and earned the win. David Bednar (1.0 IP, 0 ER) slammed the door and logged his 23rd save.
- Max Fried will toe the rubber for the Yankees on Saturday, and the 31-year-old has been superb in 29 starts (176.0 IP) this season.
- The left-hander comes into the weekend at 16-5 with a 3.02 ERA (13th) and a 1.10 WHIP (16th). His 163 strikeouts are the 24th-most in the Majors.
- Fried is coming off of a 7.0-inning quality start against the Blue Jays on Sunday, where he held them to three earned runs on six hits and a walk.
- He picked up the win in the 4-3 victory, as New York improved to 3-0 in his last three starts.
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Red Sox in the Playoffs
Meanwhile, the expectations were high for the Boston Red Sox entering the season, and while things haven’t exactly gone to plan, the organization is in the playoff mix as we approach October. The Red Sox are now 81-67, which puts them in the middle wild card spot. It’s also worth noting that Boston is 4.5 games off of Toronto’s first-place pace in the A.L. East. In terms of recent form, the Red Sox are on a 6-5 run in their last 11 games.
Boston dropped Friday’s series opener to New York in a 4-1 affair. They were getting no-hit into the 67th, and they managed only two total hits. Nate Eaton drove in the lone run with a solo shot in the 7th. Lucas Giolito (5.2 IP, 1 ER) was solid, but took the loss in the starter’s role.
- Brayan Bello will oppose Fried on Saturday, and the 26-year-old starter has sneakily been one of the best pitchers in the Majors this year.
- The right-hander has made 26 appearances (152.2 IP), going 11-6 with a 3.12 ERA (17th) and a 1.21 WHIP (25th).
- Bello last pitched on Sunday against the Diamondbacks, holding them to three earned runs on four hits and a walk over 6.0 innings.
- It was a no-decision in a 7-4 victory.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Pick
Moneyline Pick for Yankees vs. Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+118) (5 units)
This is one of the marquee matchups on Saturday, and we have a heck of a pitching matchup between Max Fried and Brayan Bello. Honestly, I view this game as a complete toss up. If I were able to get the Yankees around pick ‘em pricing, I’d play them. However, being that I view this game as a 50-50 split, I think it’s worth making a wager on the Red Sox at home as underdogs.
For starters, Boston has been very good at Fenway, going 44-29 SU. New York is a pedestrian 38-34 on the road. Additionally, the Red Sox have won Bello’s last five starts, and he has logged quality starts in four of those outings. They’re now 7-1 SU in his last eight outings. Included in that sample size is a 7.0-inning gem from Bello against the Yankees, which the Red Sox eventually won 1-0. Like I said, this game is a toss up with two fantastic pitchers, so I think it’s best to ride with the home underdog at plus-money.
Over/Under Pick for Yankees vs. Red Sox
- Under 8.5 (-115) (5 units)
Bello’s 7.0-inning shutout of the Yankees on August 22nd wasn’t the only time that he has mowed them down. The right-hander has been a thorn in the side of New York throughout his career, as their current roster is slashing just .230/.304/.345 against him over 113 at-bats.
On the flip side, we have Max Fried and his 3.02 ERA (13th) taking the ball. He opposed Bello on August 22nd, and he also turned in a scoreless outing over 6.0 innings. Boston’s current roster is slashing just .206/.301/.349 against the southpaw over 63 at-bats. I can understand why the sportsbooks have to offer a total of 8.5 runs (since the offenses can be potent), but at the same time, we just saw this pitching matchup yield a 1-0 result less than a month ago. This is a great opportunity to lock in an under, especially considering the stakes of this divisional rivalry.
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