New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction for Sunday June 28 2026

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox conclude their series at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, on Sunday, June 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 PM ET with national television coverage on NBC and Peacock. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Yankees a 49.2 percent chance to win, while the Red Sox hold a slight 50.8 percent edge. Be sure to check out our free MLB Picks.

Starting Pitchers Take the Spotlight at Fenway

Carlos Rodon is scheduled to start for New York and enters with a 4-2 record, a 3.70 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, 41.1 innings pitched, 31 hits allowed, 46 strikeouts, 22 walks, and 3 home runs allowed. Sonny Gray gets the ball for Boston with a 9-1 record, a 2.95 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, 76.1 innings pitched, 71 hits allowed, 66 strikeouts, 20 walks, and 9 home runs allowed. Both starters have produced quality numbers, although Boston's starter enters with the better record, ERA, and WHIP.

New York Looks to End the Series on a High Note

The Yankees enter Sunday's game with a 48-33 overall record and a strong 26-18 road record. New York recently lost twice to Boston after winning two consecutive games against Detroit before that and previously dropped another game to Detroit. That leaves the Yankees with two victories over their last five contests despite dropping the first two games of this series.

New York is batting .243 with 404 runs, 653 hits, and 120 home runs. The Yankees own a .327 on-base percentage and a .433 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has posted a 3.34 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP while holding opponents to a .227 batting average. New York has also recorded 701 strikeouts with 248 walks and owns a 17-11 record in day games.

The Yankees' greatest strength is the balance between their offense and pitching. They have scored more runs, hit significantly more home runs, and posted better pitching numbers than Boston across several major statistical categories. Those numbers have helped New York compile one of the better overall records among the teams provided.

Boston Carries Momentum Into the Finale

Boston comes into this matchup with a 34-46 overall record and a 14-25 home record. The Red Sox recently defeated the Yankees twice after splitting a three-game stretch against Colorado with one win and two losses. Boston has won three of its last five games and will try to complete another victory in this rivalry series.

The Red Sox are batting .244 with 319 runs, 655 hits, and 69 home runs while posting a .313 on-base percentage and a .386 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 3.77 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .244. Boston has recorded 675 strikeouts with 234 walks and is 11-21 in day games.

Boston's biggest strength entering Sunday is its recent momentum. The Red Sox have already won the first two games of the series, and the listed starting pitcher enters with a 9-1 record and a 2.95 ERA. Even though Boston trails New York in several overall team categories, it has played well in this series.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Pick

• Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

I'm backing the Yankees because they have the stronger overall record, the better road record, and superior offensive production based on the supplied statistics. New York also owns the better team ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. Boston has the hotter recent series results and a strong starting pitching matchup, but the overall body of work still gives the Yankees the edge.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Total Pick

• Take the under if the total is set at 8.0.

I like the under because both clubs have quality team pitching numbers, and both listed starters enter with ERAs below 4.00. New York owns a 3.34 team ERA, while Boston sits at 3.77, making this look like a game where pitching could control much of the action.

Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees 4 – Boston Red Sox 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.