New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 31, 2026
The New York Yankees visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, on Friday, July 31, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. Both teams enter the matchup with identical 61-47 records, although the Yankees are 35-24 away from home and the Cubs are 30-22 at Wrigley Field. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before Friday’s full schedule begins.
Starting Pitchers for Yankees vs Cubs
Will Warren is scheduled to start for New York against Chicago left-hander Shota Imanaga. Warren enters with a 7-5 record, a 4.41 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP across 102 innings. He has allowed 108 hits, 36 walks and 15 home runs while recording 102 strikeouts. Imanaga carries a 7-8 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP through 121 innings. He has surrendered 104 hits, 29 walks and 22 home runs while striking out 113. The Chicago starter owns the lower ERA and WHIP, while the New York starter has allowed fewer home runs despite working 19 fewer innings.
New York Takes Its Winning Road Record to Wrigley Field
The Yankees arrive with a 61-47 overall record and a strong 35-24 mark on the road. New York has won three of its last five games, recently winning over the White Sox by scores of 3-2 and 9-5 and defeating Philadelphia 3-1. The Yankees recently lost to the White Sox 6-5 in 12 innings and Philadelphia 11-4. Their latest defeat required extra innings, while two of their three victories during this stretch were decided by two runs or fewer.
New York is batting .234 with 505 runs, 838 hits and 153 home runs. The Yankees have a .312 on-base percentage and a .415 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 3.40 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP while issuing 325 walks and collecting 963 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are batting .226 against New York, and the Yankees have compiled a 20-17 record in day games.
The clearest New York strength is its pitching profile. The Yankees hold the advantage over Chicago in team ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and opponent batting average. New York’s 3.40 ERA is 0.78 lower than Chicago’s 4.18 mark, while its 1.18 WHIP is also better than the Cubs’ 1.26 figure. The Yankees have additionally recorded 126 more strikeouts. Those numbers give New York a meaningful path to remaining competitive even though its offense trails Chicago in several categories.
Chicago’s Balanced Offense Supports Its Home Opportunity
The Cubs also enter Friday with a 61-47 overall record and have gone 30-22 at home. Chicago has won three of its last five games, recently earning victories over St. Louis by scores of 10-2 and 7-3 and shutting out Pittsburgh 11-0. The Cubs recently lost to St. Louis 3-2 in 10 innings and Pittsburgh 8-7. Like New York, Chicago’s most recent defeat extended beyond nine innings.
Chicago is hitting .248 with 560 runs, 922 hits and 134 home runs. The Cubs carry a .340 on-base percentage and a .415 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has a 4.18 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, accompanied by 327 walks and 837 strikeouts. Opposing batters are hitting .245 against Chicago, and the Cubs are 23-20 during day games.
Chicago’s strongest advantage is its ability to put more runners on base and generate more overall offense. The Cubs have the better batting average and on-base percentage while recording 84 more hits and 55 more runs than the Yankees. Both clubs have an identical .415 slugging percentage, although New York has hit 19 more home runs. Chicago’s 58.6% matchup predictor advantage also supports the home team, compared with a 41.4% probability for New York.
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction
The teams have identical overall records and have each won three of their last five games, making this a closely balanced matchup. New York owns the stronger road record and better pitching statistics, while Chicago has the superior batting average, on-base percentage, run production and home-field record.
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Pick
- Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
Chicago is the side selection based on its starting pitching advantage, stronger offensive totals and 58.6% matchup predictor probability. The Cubs have scored 55 more runs than New York while producing the better batting average and on-base percentage. Chicago’s scheduled starter also enters with the lower ERA and WHIP. New York’s pitching staff could keep the contest close, but the combination of Chicago’s offensive production and 30-22 home record gives the Cubs a narrow edge.
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Total Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. New York owns a 3.40 team ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and a .226 opponent batting average. Chicago’s scheduled starter carries a 3.72 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, providing the Cubs with a strong pitching profile for the opening innings. I expect Chicago’s offensive advantages to produce enough runs to win, but New York’s overall pitching numbers support a game that remains below the target total.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5 – New York Yankees 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.