New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Saturday, August 1, 2026

The New York Yankees visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, on Saturday, August 1, 2026. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET, with national television coverage on FOX. New York enters at 61-48 overall with a 35-25 road record, while Chicago is 62-47 overall and 30-22 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks⁠.

Starting Pitchers for New York and Chicago

Max Fried is the probable starter for New York and enters with a 4-3 record, 3.23 ERA, and 1.02 WHIP. The left-hander has completed 69.2 innings, allowing 49 hits, 22 walks, and only one home run while recording 61 strikeouts. Chicago will counter with David Peterson, who owns a 6-7 record with a 5.80 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The left-hander has worked 94.2 innings, surrendering 104 hits, 40 walks, and 10 home runs while collecting 77 strikeouts. Fried holds substantial advantages in ERA, WHIP, hits, walks, and home runs allowed. The pitching matchup and statistics⁠ strongly favor New York.

New York’s Pitching Could Neutralize Chicago’s Offense

The Yankees enter Saturday with a 61-48 record after losing three of their last five completed games. New York most recently suffered consecutive one-run losses against the Chicago White Sox, falling 2-1 and 6-5. The Yankees earned victories of 3-2 and 9-5 earlier in that series after beginning the five-game stretch with an 11-4 road loss against Philadelphia.

New York is batting .233 with 506 runs, 845 hits, and 153 home runs. The Yankees have produced a .312 on-base percentage and a .413 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns an excellent 3.31 ERA while recording 974 strikeouts and issuing 331 walks. New York’s 153 home runs give it a significant power advantage over Chicago despite the lower batting average and hit total.

The Yankees’ clearest advantage comes from their pitching. New York owns a team ERA that is 0.84 lower than Chicago’s and has recorded 128 more strikeouts while issuing nearly the same number of walks. Fried strengthens that advantage considerably. He has surrendered only 49 hits and one home run across 69.2 innings, while Peterson has allowed more than twice as many hits and 10 home runs. New York has recently struggled to produce consistently, but its pitching provides a dependable foundation at Wrigley Field.

Chicago Looks to Let Its Deeper Offense Set the Pace

The Cubs enter Saturday with the slightly better overall record and have won three of their last five completed games. Chicago most recently defeated St. Louis 4-2 after losing the previous contest 3-2. The Cubs opened that four-game series with consecutive victories of 7-3 and 10-2. Their other result during the five-game stretch was an 8-7 road loss against Pittsburgh.

Chicago is batting .249 with 564 runs, 933 hits, and 134 home runs. The Cubs have compiled a .340 on-base percentage and a .415 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries a 4.15 ERA with 846 strikeouts and 330 walks. Chicago has scored 58 more runs and collected 88 more hits than New York while holding advantages in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

The Cubs’ strongest argument is their consistent ability to generate baserunners and runs. Chicago has scored at least four runs in four of its last five games, reaching seven runs twice and double figures once. The Cubs also own a solid 30-22 home record. However, Peterson’s 5.80 ERA and 1.52 WHIP create a significant concern against a Yankees lineup that has hit 153 home runs. Chicago’s offense may need another productive performance to overcome the starting-pitching disadvantage.

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Pick

• Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

I am backing New York because the Yankees possess the stronger probable starter and the better overall pitching staff. Fried enters with a 3.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and only one home run allowed, while Peterson carries a 5.80 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Chicago has the better offensive numbers and a strong home record, but New York has produced 19 more home runs and owns a substantial advantage in team ERA. I would play the Yankees at -135 or better behind Fried.

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Total Pick

• Pick: Under 8.5

I would take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Fried has allowed only 49 hits across 69.2 innings and gives New York an excellent opportunity to limit Chicago’s productive offense. The Yankees have scored five runs or fewer in each of their last five games and were held to one run in their most recent contest. Peterson creates risk against New York’s power, but the Yankees’ 3.31 team ERA and Fried’s outstanding home-run prevention support a game that remains below the target total.

Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees 5 – Chicago Cubs 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.