New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Picks and Prediction Tuesday, September 2, 2025
American League contenders open up a big series in Texas on Tuesday night, so dig in and grab our Yankees vs. Astros predictions. New York (76-61, 2nd in A.L. East) will open the series with LHP Max Fried (14-5, 3.06 ERA) as their starting pitcher. Houston (75-62, 1st in A.L. West) will have LHP Framber Valdez (12-7, 3.18 ERA) delivering the game’s first pitch from Daikin Park at 8:10 EST. Don’t go down on strikes! Get our top Free MLB Picks and increase your bankroll!
Yankees' power finally turned off
Following a seven-game winning streak in which the club scored a combined 58 runs, the Yankees were held to just two runs in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. They enter this series three games behind Toronto in the East while also maintaining a hold on the top Wild Card spot in the American League. The team is hitting .250 overall this season with a league-best 719 runs scored through 137 games. Over the last 30 days, the offense averaged 5.5 runs per game. Aaron Judge leads the American League with a .324 batting average, is second with 43 home runs and third with 97 RBIs.
Lumber yard
- The Yankees have 233 home runs, 31 more than the next closest team in the game.
- Judge moved to 5th on the Yankees’ all-time home run list, passing Yogi Berra, with his 358th career home run on Sunday.
- Jose Caballero leads the A.L. with 41 stolen bases in 50 attempts.
Yankees’ pitching has done well to back the offensive efforts over the past week-plus, allowing more than four runs in a game just once in their last eight efforts. This season, the staff has a 3.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .240 opponents’ batting average. New York’s starters are 53-32 with a 3.70 ERA while their relievers have 35 saves, 23 wins and a 4.24 ERA over 487.2 innings pitched. Max Fried makes his 28th start of the season after going 2-1 with a 5.14 ERA in five August starts.
Pitching notes
- Yankees’ pitchers are second in the A.L. with 1,226 strikeouts.
- Fried won on Wednesday, allowing just a run, four hits and two walks over seven innings versus Washington.
- The left-hander is second on the club with 154 strikeouts in 162 innings pitched.
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Astros finding it tough to create distance
With a win on Labor Day, the Astros were able to salvage a split of their four-game series against the Angels. Despite going 4-2 over their last six games, they are still only 2.5 games ahead of Seattle in a heated West race, with a brutal schedule ahead. Their pitching has stood firm, posting two shutouts over their last week, bringing their season total to 11. Houston’s staff comes into this series with a 3.82 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .232 opponents’ batting average. Framber Valdez is on start number 27 for the season. He has allowed just one home run over his last eight starts and only nine all year.
Pitching notes
- Houston leads the A.L. with 1,306 strikeouts.
- Valdez went 1-3 with a 5.64 ERA in August but won his last start, allowing just three hits and two walks in seven scoreless innings against Colorado.
- The Astros’ starter is 0-1 with a 6.46 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees.
The Astros’ eight runs of offense in Monday’s win were their highest offensive output in eight games, and they scored two runs or less in five of those. The team is hitting .253 through 138 games with 580 runs scored. The team has only 71 stolen bases on the year, 11th in the American League, but they’ve gone 15-for-16 on attempts over the last 30 days. Jeremy Pena’ is fourth in the A.L. with a .307 batting average.
Lumber yard
- The team has a combined 374 extra base hits.
- Jose Altuve hit his 24th home run of the season on Monday but only his second since August 16th.
- Carlos Correa is hitting .295 with three home runs, 13 RBIs and 12 runs in his 27 games since returning to the club at the trade deadline.
SPREAD Rating - 5 units
Houston +100
This will be the second series of the season for a pair of clubs that have become heated rivals over the past decade-plus. Houston took two of three games in the Bronx in early August, including a 7-1 in a game that Fried started for New York. The Yankee starter allowed four runs and eight hits in that game, while also hitting two batters. The left-hander has struggled with command this season, hitting nine batters while allowing 42 walks. The Astros are not the most patient team at the plate in terms of drawing walks but they also don’t strike out a ton, so they will wait out Fried to find their pitches here. They also have the backing of Valdez, who seems to have woken back up after struggling through his first four starts of August. In his last start, he allowed zero earned runs for the sixth time this season. He’s also been a beast at home, going 6-2 with a 1.70 ERA while opponents hit just .207 against him. If anyone can slow the Yankees' bats a bit, it’s the Astros' hurler. Houston is 3-1 in their last four games against New York.
Take the Astros.
TOTAL Rating - 5
Under 7.5
These two teams took to the offensive in their first series, scoring a combined 8.3 runs per game, yet the total went 1-1-1. The heat gets ratcheted up to another level this time around as we approach the stretch run with heavy playoff implications in play. That, combined with this starting pitching matchup, should lend to the bats being a bit on the tight side in this matchup. We saw that the Yankees' hot bats were already cooled in Chicago on Sunday, and then they had an off day on Monday, likely cooling them down even more. Facing Valdez won’t help their cause. Houston’s offense has a nice Monday but before that scored two runs or less in nine of their last 15 games. The under is 5-3-2 in the last ten games between these two.
Take the under.
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