New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Picks and Predictions, Thursday September 4, 2025
There are bitter rivals all over baseball, but in recent years, there's been few more intense rivalries than this one that we'll look at on Thursday with our New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros prediction.
The New York Yankees (77-62) came into 2025 with a World Series or bust mentality, and despite a mid-season slump, this is once again looking like a team that's ready to compete with the best in the American League.
On Thursday, they finish up their series with the Houston Astros (77-63), a team that's undergone plenty of change in recent years, but with a tight lead in the American League West, they're a team that can't be taken lightly in 2025. Read on to see our New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros prediction.
Expected pitching matchup: LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Cristian Javier.
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Can the Yankees chase down top spot in the AL East?
The New York Yankees were cruising just a few months ago in the American League East, and while they went through a major period of struggle, they've now won eight of their last ten as they sit just three games back in the division standings. With the recent hot streak, the Yankees now rank first in all of baseball in runs scored, and with a pitching staff that's posted an impressive ERA of 3.90, there's no team in the American League better set up for a deep run in 2025 than the Bronx Bombers.
Here New York will turn to veteran star Carlos Rodon, who has had a fantastic run thus far in 2025 as he has posted a 3.18 ERA over 28 starts, all while striking out an amazing 177 hitters in 164.1 innings, with the team going 15-7 in that time. Last time out for the Yankees was a tough loss to these Astros, with three RBI to Cody Bellinger making this a very tight contest, but with Devin Williams allowing four earned runs in just 0.2 innings, the team would ultimately fall in a thriller 8-7.
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Will the Astros hold on in the AL West?
The Houston Astros haven't exactly been dominant throughout 2025, but they're doing just enough to keep racking up the wins, with the team going 43-31 at home this season as they hold a solid four-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the American League West. The Astros' pitching has been good, ranking top-10 in baseball behind a 3.84 ERA this season, but the lineup has struggled in ways we've not seen in recent years, as they will need to overcome the 23rd-best lineup in baseball to make noise down the stretch.
On the mound for Houston in this one will be talented right-hander Cristian Javier, who has appeared in just four games this season, posting a 3.38 ERA through 16.0 innings in that time, with the 28-year-old walking nine hitters and giving up nine hits so far. Last time out for the Astros was a dramatic win over these Yankees, with Jeremy Pena's two RBI's leading a late-game charge as the team overcame a late meltdown from Bryan Abreu to pick up the 8-7 victory.
New York -125 (4 units)
These two bitter rivals have matched up 10 times dating back to last season, and in that time, the Yankees have a tight 6-4 advantage, although this season the advantage goes to Houston with three wins in five meetings.
However, the Yankees have dominated on the road in this rivalry, going 4-1 in their last five games played in Houston, and with the much more experienced Carlos Rodon on the mound behind baseball's best lineup, expect the Yankees to finish off a series win in this one.
Over 8.5 (5 units)
These two teams get the job done in different ways, although in their last 10 head-to-head encounters, the over is 5-4-1, with the average amount of runs scored between the two during that stretch sitting at just under 10 per game.
For the Yankees, the over sits at 7-3 in their last 10 overall games, with 7.4 runs scored per game in that time, and for the Astros, the over comes in at 4-6 in their past 10, with seven runs allowed in each of the first two games in this current series against New York.
Keep it simple, take the over.
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