New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction for Monday September 14 2026

The New York Yankees visit the Minnesota Twins at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Monday, September 14, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. New York enters at 85-63 overall and 44-31 on the road, while Minnesota is 70-78 overall and 39-35 at home. The Yankees are 4-1 over their last five games despite coming off a 12-2 loss, while the Twins are 2-3 over their last five and most recently earned a 4-3 victory. Minnesota leads the season series 2-1 after taking two of three earlier this year. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

New York is scheduled to start Will Warren, who enters at 10-6 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 142.1 innings. He has allowed 145 hits and 21 home runs while recording 141 strikeouts against 49 walks. Minnesota counters with Bailey Ober, who is 7-5 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 117.2 innings. He has allowed 113 hits and 18 home runs while striking out 85 and walking 34. New York's starter owns the slightly better ERA and a much higher strikeout total, while Minnesota's starter has the lower WHIP. The matchup is relatively close, but New York has the slight overall edge based on run prevention and swing-and-miss ability.

New York Brings the Stronger Overall Profile

New York enters Monday at 85-63 overall and 44-31 away from home. The Yankees have won four of their last five, with victories by scores of 6-4, 10-3, 6-1 and 5-3. Their only loss during that stretch was a 12-2 defeat in their most recent game. New York remains second in the American League East and sits four games behind the division leader.

The Yankees are batting .235 with 675 runs, 1,150 hits and 202 home runs. They own a .312 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage. New York's pitching staff has been one of its biggest strengths, carrying a 3.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while holding opponents to a .224 batting average. The staff has recorded 1,329 strikeouts against 446 walks, and the Yankees are 27-25 in day games.

New York's clearest advantage is pitching. The Yankees hold a massive edge in team ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average, and they have also produced 87 more strikeouts than Minnesota. Offensively, New York's batting average is lower, but the Yankees have hit 29 more home runs and own the better slugging percentage. That combination of power and run prevention gives New York the stronger overall profile.

Minnesota Has Home-Field Value but Needs Better Pitching

Minnesota enters Monday at 70-78 overall and 39-35 at Target Field. The Twins are 2-3 over their last five games, with victories by scores of 4-3 and 3-2. Their three losses came by scores of 5-2, 7-2 and 5-4. Minnesota is third in the American League Central and sits six games behind the division leader.

The Twins are batting .244 with 681 runs, 1,217 hits and 173 home runs. They carry a .319 on-base percentage and .405 slugging percentage. Minnesota's pitching staff owns a 4.66 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while opponents are batting .250. The staff has recorded 1,242 strikeouts against 539 walks, and Minnesota is 28-32 in day games.

Minnesota's main strengths are its batting average, on-base percentage and home record. The Twins have scored six more runs than New York despite hitting 29 fewer home runs, showing that they have found other ways to generate offense. The concern is clearly the pitching staff, which trails New York by 1.40 runs in team ERA and also gives up considerably more baserunners and hits. Against a power-heavy opponent, that is a difficult weakness to overlook.

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

The New York Yankees Moneyline is the preferred side. Minnesota owns the season-series lead and has a winning home record, but New York has the stronger overall team profile. The Yankees hold major advantages in ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, strikeouts and home-run production, while also entering at 44-31 on the road. The starting-pitching matchup is close, but New York's scheduled starter brings the better ERA and much stronger strikeout numbers. With the Yankees winning four of their last five, New York is the stronger side.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the Under if the total is set at 8.5 or higher. New York's 3.26 team ERA and 1.17 WHIP give the Yankees a strong chance to control Minnesota's offense, while both scheduled starters enter with ERAs close to 4.00 rather than extreme blow-up numbers. Minnesota's last five games have produced combined totals of 7, 7, 9, 5 and 9 runs, with three finishing at seven runs or fewer. New York certainly has the power to push the scoring higher, but the Yankees' pitching advantage creates a solid case for the Under at 8.5 or better.

Final Picks: New York Yankees Moneyline and Under 8.5

This preview was completed on Sunday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.