New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction for Wednesday September 16 2026

The New York Yankees visit the Minnesota Twins at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. New York enters at 87-63 overall and 45-31 on the road, while Minnesota is 70-80 overall and 39-37 at home. The Yankees have won four of their last five games and sit 3.5 games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East, while Minnesota has dropped four of its last five and sits seven games back in the AL Central. New York won the completed series opener 8-3. The Yankees are -149 moneyline favorites and -1.5 (+118) on the run line, while Minnesota is +123 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-143). The total is 8 runs, with the Over at -108 and Under at -112. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

New York is scheduled to start Carlos Rodon, who enters at 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 70.1 innings. He has allowed only 44 hits and six home runs while recording 78 strikeouts against 35 walks. Minnesota counters with Zebby Matthews, who is 9-10 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 119.1 innings. Matthews has surrendered 115 hits and 23 home runs while striking out 99 and walking 37. New York owns the clear starting-pitching advantage based on the supplied numbers. Rodon has the considerably lower ERA, has been much more difficult to hit and has allowed only six home runs, while Matthews has struggled more consistently to prevent runs and keep the ball in the park.

New York Brings a Major Pitching Advantage to Minnesota

New York enters Wednesday at 87-63 overall and an impressive 45-31 away from home. The Yankees are 4-1 over their last five games, including an 8-3 victory over Minnesota in the completed series opener. They also defeated the Mets 2-0 and 6-4 and Colorado 10-3 during this stretch, with their only loss coming 12-2 against the Mets. New York has won two straight and remains within 3.5 games of Tampa Bay in the AL East.

The Yankees are batting .235 with 685 runs, 1,162 hits and 207 home runs. They own a .312 on-base percentage and .410 slugging percentage. New York's greatest strength has been its pitching staff, which carries an excellent 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while holding opponents to a .222 batting average. The Yankees have recorded 1,346 strikeouts against 452 walks and are 29-25 in day games.

New York's combination of power and pitching creates a difficult matchup for Minnesota. The Yankees have hit 32 more home runs than the Twins despite Minnesota owning the slightly better batting average and essentially identical run production. The much larger difference comes on the mound, where New York's 3.22 team ERA is nearly a run and a half lower than Minnesota's 4.71. With the stronger scheduled starter also going Wednesday, the Yankees have several statistical advantages working in their favor.

Minnesota Needs Its Offense to Overcome the Pitching Gap

Minnesota enters at 70-80 overall and 39-37 at Target Field. The Twins are just 1-4 over their last five games and have lost two straight. They dropped the completed series opener to New York 8-3 after losing 9-2 to Cleveland. Minnesota's only victory during the five-game stretch was a 4-3 win over Cleveland, while its other defeats came by scores of 5-2 and 7-2.

The Twins are batting .244 with 686 runs, 1,229 hits and 175 home runs. Minnesota owns a .318 on-base percentage and .404 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff has struggled considerably more, carrying a 4.71 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while opponents are batting .251. Minnesota has recorded 1,255 strikeouts against 544 walks and is 28-34 in day games.

Minnesota's best argument comes from an offense that has been competitive with New York in several categories. The Twins have the better batting average and on-base percentage and have actually scored one more run over the course of the season. The problem is the pitching disparity. Minnesota has allowed opponents to bat 29 points higher than New York has, while its team WHIP is .22 higher. Against a Yankees club that has already demonstrated significant power and enters in much better recent form, Minnesota needs a substantially better pitching performance than its season numbers suggest.

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (+118)

Take the New York Yankees -1.5 (+118). New York has the better record, the stronger road mark, the better recent form and a significant pitching advantage. The Yankees own a 3.22 team ERA compared with Minnesota's 4.71, and Wednesday's starting matchup also strongly favors New York based on the supplied numbers. The Yankees already won the completed series opener by five runs, and getting plus money on the run line provides better value than laying -149 on the straight moneyline. Minnesota's offense is capable of keeping this competitive, but the pitching gap makes New York the preferred side.

Pick: Under 8 (-112)

Take the Under 8 (-112). New York's scheduled starter enters with a 2.94 ERA and has allowed only 44 hits across 70.1 innings, while the Yankees have one of the stronger overall pitching profiles in the supplied data with a 3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .222 opponent batting average. Minnesota's starter carries more risk, particularly with 23 home runs allowed, but an eight-run total still provides enough room if New York controls the game from the mound. A lower-scoring Yankees victory fits the matchup better than relying on Minnesota to make this another high-scoring contest.

Final Picks: New York Yankees -1.5 (+118) and Under 8 (-112)

This preview was completed on Tuesday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.