New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction for July 24, 2026

The New York Yankees visit the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on July 24, 2026. The game is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. and will be televised on Apple TV. New York enters the matchup with a 57-45 overall record and a 31-22 record on the road, while Philadelphia is 56-47 overall and 27-25 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Yankees a 44.2% chance of winning and the Phillies a 55.8% chance. The listed game-time temperature is 80 degrees. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers

Cam Schlittler is scheduled to start for New York against Philadelphia left-hander Jesus Luzardo. Schlittler enters with a 9-6 record, a 2.20 ERA, and a 0.96 WHIP across 123 innings. He has allowed 93 hits and 12 home runs while recording 145 strikeouts and issuing 25 walks. Luzardo is 9-4 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP through 115.1 innings. He has surrendered 102 hits and 10 home runs while collecting 143 strikeouts and allowing 37 walks. Schlittler holds the lower ERA and WHIP while recording two more strikeouts and issuing 12 fewer walks. Luzardo has allowed two fewer home runs and has three fewer losses, but Schlittler has worked 7.2 more innings.

New York Takes a Strong Road Record Into Philadelphia

New York enters Friday’s matchup with a 57-45 overall record and a 31-22 mark away from home. The Yankees have won three of their last five games, recently defeating Pittsburgh by scores of 2-0 and 8-5 while also earning a 2-1 victory over Los Angeles. Their two losses during that stretch were a 5-3 defeat against Pittsburgh in 10 innings and an 8-2 setback against Los Angeles. New York held its opponent to one run or fewer in two of its three recent victories.

The Yankees have recorded a .236 batting average, a .315 on-base percentage, and a .420 slugging percentage. They have accumulated 795 hits, scored 480 runs, and hit 147 home runs. New York’s pitching staff enters with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .226 batting average. The staff has recorded 902 strikeouts and issued 308 walks. The Yankees have also compiled a 20-17 record in day games, although Friday’s matchup is scheduled for the evening.

New York’s clearest strength is the balance between its power production and run prevention. The Yankees have hit 12 more home runs than Philadelphia and own an 18-point advantage in slugging percentage. Their pitching staff also carries an ERA that is 0.89 lower than Philadelphia’s, along with the better WHIP and opponent batting average. The primary concern is a lower hit total, as New York has recorded 22 fewer hits despite scoring 32 more runs.

Philadelphia Hopes Its Recent Slump Ends at Home

Philadelphia brings a 56-47 overall record and a 27-25 home mark into the series opener. The Phillies have won two of their last five games, recently defeating Los Angeles 10-7 and earning a 6-1 victory over New York. Their three losses during that period came by scores of 9-5 and 2-1 against Los Angeles and 6-1 against New York. Philadelphia scored six or more runs in both victories but was held to one run in two of its three defeats.

The Phillies enter with a .236 batting average, a .303 on-base percentage, and a .402 slugging percentage. They have scored 448 runs on 817 hits while hitting 135 home runs. Philadelphia’s pitching staff owns a 4.27 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing opposing hitters to bat .255. The staff has collected 1,004 strikeouts and issued 301 walks. The Phillies have also produced a 17-19 record in day games, though this contest is scheduled for 6:40 p.m.

Philadelphia’s most notable strength is its ability to generate strikeouts. The Phillies have recorded 1,004 strikeouts, which is 102 more than New York’s total. They have also issued seven fewer walks and collected 22 more hits. However, Philadelphia trails New York in runs, home runs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Its team ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average are also higher, leaving the home team with several statistical disadvantages despite receiving the larger matchup-predictor percentage.

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

• Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

New York is my side selection despite Philadelphia holding a 55.8% probability in the ESPN Analytics matchup predictor. The Yankees have the better overall and road records, while Philadelphia is only two games above .500 at home. New York also holds advantages in runs, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, team ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. The Yankees’ scheduled starter enters with the lower ERA and WHIP, and New York has won three of its last five games compared with Philadelphia’s two victories. Those supplied numbers support the road team.

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies Total Pick

• Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. I favor the under because New York enters with a 3.38 team ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .226 opponent batting average. The Yankees’ scheduled starter has a 2.20 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP, while Philadelphia’s starter carries a 3.43 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Three of New York’s last five games finished with seven combined runs or fewer, and three of Philadelphia’s last five also ended below 8.5 runs. The supplied pitching statistics and recent scores make the under my preferred total.

Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees 4 – Philadelphia Phillies 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.