New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 9, 2026
Use Code SSWC The New York Yankees visit the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday at 1:10 PM ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. New York is 50-41 and sits second in the AL East, while Tampa Bay leads the division at 53-36. The four-game series is tied after the Rays earned a 6-4 victory on Tuesday following the Yankees' 5-1 win in Monday's opener. New York has split its last five games, while Tampa Bay has also gone 3-2 over its last five contests. With first place in the AL East on the line, both clubs have another important divisional matchup ahead. Cash a winner with our free MLB picks.
New York Yankees Looking to Keep Pace in the AL East
The Yankees continue to rely on their power despite ranking near the bottom of the league with a .234 team batting average. New York has scored 436 runs while collecting 705 hits, 132 home runs, a .316 on-base percentage, and a .419 slugging percentage. Ben Rice has emerged as the offensive leader, batting .273 with 26 home runs and 60 RBI. Cody Bellinger has added 11 home runs with 50 RBI, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. has contributed 12 home runs and 26 stolen bases. Even without Aaron Judge in the lineup, New York still possesses plenty of power.
The Yankees have paired that offense with one of baseball's strongest pitching staffs. New York ranks second in MLB with a 3.40 ERA and owns a 1.19 WHIP while holding opponents to a .228 batting average. Yankees pitchers have recorded 794 strikeouts and continue to keep the club near the top of the division despite several key injuries throughout the rotation.
Injuries: Max Fried, Clarke Schmidt, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Carlos Rodón.
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Tampa Bay Rays Looking to Protect First Place
Tampa Bay has been one of the American League's most balanced offensive clubs. The Rays are batting .257 as a team with 403 runs, 763 hits, 87 home runs, a .334 on-base percentage, and a .396 slugging percentage. Junior Caminero leads the club with 26 home runs and 56 RBI, while Yandy Díaz is batting .319 with a .401 on-base percentage and 103 hits. Jonathan Aranda has driven in a team-high 58 runs, giving Tampa Bay consistent production throughout the middle of the lineup.
Tampa Bay has also received outstanding work from its pitching staff. The Rays rank seventh in MLB with a 3.76 ERA and own a 1.17 WHIP, slightly better than New York in that category. Opponents are batting only .232 against Tampa Bay pitching, and the club has consistently received quality innings from both its starters and bullpen.
Injuries: Steven Matz, Jake Fraley, Gavin Lux, Jesse Scholtens, Manuel Rodríguez.
Pitching Matchup
New York Yankees – Undecided
New York had not announced a starting pitcher at the time of publication. Regardless of who gets the assignment, the Yankees enter with one of baseball's top overall pitching staffs, ranking second in MLB with a 3.40 ERA and limiting opponents to a .228 batting average.
Tampa Bay Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rasmussen is 7-4 with a 2.78 ERA and an outstanding 0.90 WHIP across 97.0 innings. He has allowed only 70 hits while striking out 96 batters and walking just 17. Rasmussen has been one of the most reliable starters in the American League and gives Tampa Bay a clear advantage entering this matchup.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game Pick
- Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay holds the advantage with Rasmussen on the mound and continues to play excellent baseball at Tropicana Field, where the Rays are 32-13 this season. The Yankees remain dangerous because of their power, but the absence of Judge continues to impact the lineup. Rasmussen has consistently limited baserunners all season, while Tampa Bay's balanced offense is capable of producing enough runs against an undecided New York starter. The Rays have the stronger overall matchup and are the better play.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Over/Under Pick
- Under
This matchup features two of the better pitching staffs in baseball, with the Yankees ranking second in ERA and the Rays sitting seventh. Rasmussen has been dominant with a 2.78 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, while New York has consistently prevented runs regardless of injuries. With two playoff-caliber clubs battling for first place in the division, expect pitching to control the matchup and keep scoring below the total.
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