New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays, ALDS, Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Use Code SSWC A pair of American League East rivals kick off their divisional round series on Saturday afternoon, so check out our Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions and get a jump on the competition. New York got by fellow division rival Boston, 2-1, in the Wild Card round. They’ll use RHP Luis Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA) as their starting pitcher in the series opener. Division champion Toronto, who has been lying in wait for a week, will go with RHP Kevin Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA). The first pitch from the Rogers Centre is scheduled for 4:08 EST and with three more games on deck for the day, check out our Free MLB Picks.
Yankees beat the odds to advance
The Yankees bucked the trend, becoming the first team to lose game one of the current Wild Card format and still go on to win the series. Behind a monster effort from rookie starter Cam Schlittler (8 IP, 12 Ks) on Tuesday night, they pulled out a 4-0 win and advanced to the ALDS for a second straight season.
In their three games versus Boston, the New York offense hit .253 and produced nine runs on the strength of five extra-base hits. Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe each had four hits in the series, while Volpe and Austin Wells both drove in two runs apiece. Judge went hitless in Tuesday’s series clincher, ending a stretch of seven straight games with a hit and 11 straight getting on base. Volpe had a hit in all three Wild Card games and has now hit safely in 13 of 17 playoff games that he’s played in.
New York’s pitching staff held the Red Sox to just six runs, leaving them with a 2.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and .198 opponents’ batting average. Thanks to Schlittler’s efforts, they posted a shutout on Tuesday, their first since September 18th. Yankees’ relievers worked 6.2 innings in the series and allowed three runs, six hits, and four walks. The staff recorded 30 strikeouts in the series and walked 10. David Bednar appeared in all three games out of the pen, logging 2.2 innings while allowing a run and striking out four.
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Starter spotlight
- A lat strain delayed Luis Gil’s season until the beginning of August.
- The reigning A.L. Rookie of the Year faced Toronto once, in early September, earning the win after allowing one run, three hits and four walks in six innings.
- Is 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA in four career starts against the Blue Jays.
- Yankees went 8-3 in his starts this season.
- Opponents are hitting .226 against Gil this season with five home runs and 33 walks.
- Allowed at least two walks in all but one of his starts this year.
Roster notes
- Cody Bellinger was limping after Tuesday’s game and is day-to-day with a left foot injury.
- Judge continues to deal with right elbow issues.
Blue Jays earn their keep
It was a nailbiter, and it took until the end of the regular season, but the Blue Jays locked down their first American League East title in 11 years and finished with the top record in the league. They finished the regular season on a four-game winning streak.
The Blue Jays hit .265 as a club in the regular season, the best mark I the American League, and their 798 runs were the second most in the league. They struck out 1,099 times, the second fewest in the A.L., and hit 191 home runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had an excellent season, hitting .292 with 23 home runs, 84 RBIs and 96 runs scored. However, he’s been homerless since September 9th and hit .256 since then. On the plus side, he’s hit .373 with two home runs against the Yankees this season. George Springer led the club with 32 home runs in the regular season. In September, the Jays’ outfielder hit .347 with eight homers, 16 RBIs and 22 runs.
In the pitching department, Toronto’s staff finished the year with a 4.19 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a .241 opponents’ batting average. Their starters went 50-46 with a 4.34 ERA while the bullpen bailed the team out with 44 wins, 42 saves and a 3.98 ERA. Jeff Hoffman was 9-7 with a 4.37 ERA and finished third in the American League with 33 saves in 40 opportunities. Hoffman went 1-1 with four saves and a 0.77 ERA over his last 12 appearances. Brandon Little made a team-high 79 relief appearances, recording 30 holds while posting a 3.03 ERA.
Stater spotlight
- Kevin Gausman made four starts against the Yankees this season, going 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA.
- Is 12-10 with a 3.67 ERA in 39 career games against New York.
- Went 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA over his last five starts.
- Blue Jays were 4-7 in Gausman’s last 11 efforts.
- Opponents are hitting .216 against the right-hander with 21 home runs and 50 walks.
- Tied for seventh in the American League with 189 strikeouts.
Roster notes
- As of Friday evening, the team has yet to announce if Bo Bichette, who has been sidelined since September 7th with a knee injury, will be on the roster.
- Jose Berrios (elbow) will not be a part of the ALDS roster.
- On the IL since mid-September with a back injury, Chris Bassitt was added to the roster for this series.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Picks
Money Line Pick for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
- Blue Jays -118 (5 units)
The Blue Jays had the upper hand on the Yankees in the regular season, winning 8 of the 13 games between the clubs. Both starters in this matchup last pitched on Sunday, so they are on equal rest. Toronto obviously has a fresher set of arms in the pen, which will be a plus, especially out of the gate. The Jays still had some big question marks in terms of their roster, with Bichette the biggest. Max Scherzer may be a casualty for this round, but that shouldn’t hurt the club, as their bullpen has plenty of arms to get by. Little, Hoffman, and Seranthony Dominguez on the back end instill a lot more confidence than what the Yankees are rolling out at the end of games. New York had just one day off and was forced to make an international flight in that time. Toronto’s been sitting back, waiting for this moment.
Take the Blue Jays.
Over/Under Pick for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
- Over 7.5 (4 units)
These two teams battled it out for the division crown until the very end, and now we get the chance to watch them battle with even more on the line. I am expecting, because of the great knowledge these two teams have of each other, that the bats benefit early in the series. Judge has hit Gausman well this season with a pair of home runs in his pocket as well. Giancarlo Stanton has 12 career home runs at Rogers Centre, and the Yanks are due to power up after the offense was a bit quiet in the Wild Card. Spring has been carrying the Blue Jays' offense, so his consistency at the plate will be key to the club getting off on the right foot. They know Gil well enough at this point, so I expect them to set things up early and be in position to capitalize. The over is 5-4-1 in the last ten meetings.
Take the over.
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