New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Sunday, August 16, 2026

The New York Yankees visit the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, on Sunday, August 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:37 PM ET, with MLB.TV providing television coverage. New York enters the matchup at 68-54 overall and 37-27 on the road, while Toronto is 60-64 overall and 32-32 at home. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. Before making your selections for Sunday’s matchup, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Ryan Weathers is scheduled to start for New York and enters at 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 126.2 innings. He has allowed 116 hits and 18 home runs while recording 136 strikeouts against 37 walks. Toronto counters with Dylan Cease, who is 7-5 with an excellent 2.40 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 131.1 innings. He has surrendered only 85 hits and nine home runs while recording 191 strikeouts against 56 walks. Toronto has the statistical advantage in the starting matchup, with the lower ERA and WHIP, considerably more strikeouts, and substantially fewer hits and home runs allowed.

New York Needs Its Power to Make the Difference

New York enters Sunday at 68-54 overall and has played well away from home with a 37-27 road record. The Yankees are 2-3 across their last five completed games after dropping a 3-1 decision at Toronto on Friday. Their other recent losses came by scores of 1-0 and 2-1 in 10 innings, while their two victories were 10-5 and 4-1 decisions over Seattle.

The Yankees are batting .230 this season with a .309 on-base percentage and .410 slugging percentage. New York has scored 546 runs on 930 hits while hitting 170 home runs. Pitching has been a major strength, as the Yankees own a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while holding opponents to a .224 batting average. The staff has recorded 1,099 strikeouts while issuing 373 walks.

New York's clearest offensive advantage is its power. The Yankees have hit 170 home runs compared with only 116 for Toronto and have scored 61 more runs despite possessing the lower batting average. Their 3.27 team ERA also gives them a considerable season-long pitching advantage. The concern is an offense that has scored one run or fewer in three of its last five completed games.

Toronto Brings Strong Recent Form into Sunday

Toronto comes into the matchup at 60-64 overall and an even 32-32 at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays have been playing their best baseball recently, going 4-1 over their last five completed games. Toronto defeated New York 3-1 on Friday after taking three of four against Boston, with victories of 6-4, 5-3, and 2-1. Its lone defeat during the five-game stretch was a 7-0 loss.

The Blue Jays are batting .242 with a .303 on-base percentage and .375 slugging percentage. Toronto has scored 485 runs on 1,008 hits while producing 116 home runs. Its pitching staff carries a 3.99 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, with opponents batting .240. Toronto pitching has recorded 1,078 strikeouts while issuing 458 walks.

Toronto's biggest advantage Sunday is the combination of recent form and the scheduled starting matchup. The Blue Jays have won four of their last five, and their starter brings a 2.40 ERA and 1.07 WHIP into this contest. Toronto's primary concern is its season-long offensive production, particularly a .375 slugging percentage and 485 runs scored against a New York staff that has allowed opponents to bat only .224.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline

Toronto gets the slight edge despite New York owning the stronger overall record and superior season-long pitching numbers. The Blue Jays are 4-1 over their last five completed games and have the more favorable starting matchup, with their scheduled starter carrying a 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 191 strikeouts. New York's recent offensive struggles also make Toronto attractive at home.

Pick: Under 8.0

Take the under if the total is set at 8.0. New York owns a 3.27 team ERA, while Toronto's scheduled starter has produced a 2.40 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Four of New York's last five completed games have finished with six or fewer combined runs, and Toronto has allowed three runs or fewer in four of its last five. The pitching matchup makes another lower-scoring contest the preferred angle.

Preview was completed prior to game play on Saturday.