New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Picks for Sunday, October 5th, 2025
The ALDS rolls in with Game 2 on Sunday afternoon and to get you ready for the action we’re breaking down both sides and giving you our Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions. Toronto got the upper hand in the series with a 10-1 win on Saturday. They’ll look to extend their series lead with rookie RHP Trey Yesavage (1-0, 3.21 ERA) as their starting pitcher. New York rolls out LHP Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA) as they look to even things up before returning home. The first pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 4:08 EST and stay on top of all of the postseason action with our Free MLB Picks.
Offense can’t get going for Yankees
After pushing their Wild Card series to the limit, the Yankees were still in a bit of a haze, having used their lone off day to travel. Their offense mustered only 6 hits in the loss and starter Luis Gil lasted just 2.2 innings on the day.
In their four postseason games, New York’s offense is hitting .237 in the playoffs with only seven of their 31 hits going for extra bases. Aaron Judge stayed hot, collecting two hits on Saturday, the third time he’d done so in four playoff games. He had nine hits total in last season’s 14-game run to the World Series. The Yankee outfielder has just one RBI this postseason. Giancarlo Stanton went 0-3 with a strikeout on Saturday and is hitting just .071 in the playoffs.
The Yankees’ pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and opponents have hit .250 against them. They’ve allowed four home runs and walked 12 batters. Their relievers have an 8.25 ERA and have worked 12 innings thus far. The team used five arms out of the bullpen on Saturday and combined they served up eight runs, nine hits and two walks. Luke Weaver didn’t even record an out and was yanked after all three batters he faced scored.
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Starter spotlight
- Max Fried went 2-1 with a 4.97 ERA in four starts versus Toronto this season.
- The left-hander is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in seven career starts against the Jays.
- In game one of the Wild Card series, he tossed 6.1 scoreless innings against the Red Sox, striking out six and allowing four hits and three walks.
- Allowed only two home runs over his last six starts.
- In 13 postseason starts, Fried is 2-5 with a 4.43 ERA.
Blue Jays bust out the big bats
The wait was worth it for the Blue Jays, who, after sitting idle for nearly a week, came out ready to roll in Game 1 on Saturday. Kevin Gausman tossed 5.2 innings and allowed just a run in the win. Toronto’s offense finished the game with 14 hits.
The bang that Toronto’s offense produced was their second straight double-digit effort after they concluded the regular season by putting up 13 on Tampa. A day shy of going a whole month without a home run, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ended his power slump with a first-inning solo shot. He would add an RBI single in the seventh. It was the first time in seven postseason games that Guerrero had two hits. In his playoff debut, Nathaniel Lukes went 2-5 with a double and 3 RBIs. Andres Giminez also had two hits in Saturday’s win and has reached base safely in eight straight games.
Toronto came into this series with a 4.19 team ERA in the regular season, bolstered by their bullpen's 3.98 mark. In Saturday’s win, they saw four relivers come through the bullpen doors, combining for 3.1 scoreless innings, allowing a combined two hits and three walks to lock down the victory. Louis Varland Seranthony Dominguez each picked up a hold before the Blue Jays blew things open.
Starter spotlight
- This will be just the fourth career start for Trey Yesavage and first versus the Yankees.
- Toronto went 3-0 in his starts.
- The 22-year-old struck 16 batters in 14 innings.
- In his last start, he allowed five hits and two walks over five scoreless innings against Tampa Bay to earn his first Big League win.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Picks
Spread Pick for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
- Toronto +135 (5 units)
The Yankees are an all-or-nothing team when it comes to offense. If the power is out, they are likely not to light up the scoreboard, as was the case on Saturday. They have yet to even encounter Yesevage and the youngster has looked stronger with each subsequent start. I think New York has a tough time figuring out the rookie, and the Jays' bullpen is strong enough to carry them the rest of the way. I would expect Fried to also have another strong outing, as he continues to prove he’s built for the postseason. However, unless he can go nine, the Yankee bullpen doesn’t offer a lot in the confidence department. Toronto is 7-1 at home against New York this season.
Take the Blue Jays.
Over/Under Pick for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
- Under 8 (4 units)
The Yankees' offense has not been doing a whole lot this postseason, averaging just 2.5 runs per game through four. Toronto’s offense got off the mat without issue in their first postseason game, but I don’t expect that to carry over against Fried. There were two of the top-scoring offenses in the American League this season, but both have slowed down the stretch, and they most definitely tighten up when facing each other. This starting pitching matchup is also a big factor in our decision on this one. The under is 5-1-1 in the last seven games between the two teams.
Take the under.
