Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Monday August 31 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, to open a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday night. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM ET on August 31, with ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV providing the coverage. Philadelphia enters at 76-60 overall and 38-30 on the road, while Arizona is 73-65 overall and 40-29 at home. The Phillies are second in the National League East and have won three straight games, while the Diamondbacks sit third in the National League West. Arizona holds a 2-1 advantage in the season series after three one-run games in Philadelphia earlier this year. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Arizona a 61.4% chance of winning compared with 38.6% for Philadelphia. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing your Monday baseball wagers, check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions and betting analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Philadelphia is scheduled to start Aaron Nola, who enters at 5-10 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.40 WHIP through 143 innings. Nola has allowed 151 hits while recording 153 strikeouts against 49 walks, but his 32 home runs allowed are a significant concern. Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt, who has been considerably more effective at 7-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 105 innings. Pfaadt has surrendered 94 hits while recording 72 strikeouts against 26 walks and has allowed 12 home runs. Arizona owns the clear statistical starting pitching advantage, with Pfaadt holding sizable edges in ERA, WHIP and home runs allowed.

Phillies Carry Momentum Into Phoenix

Philadelphia enters the series at 76-60 and sits second in the National League East, five games behind Atlanta. The Phillies have played winning baseball away from home at 38-30 and arrive in Arizona on a three-game winning streak. Philadelphia recently defeated Los Angeles 4-2 in 10 innings and 5-3 after shutting out Seattle 6-0. The Phillies are 3-2 across their last five games, with all five being played on the road.

Philadelphia is batting .243 with 617 runs, 1,107 hits and 162 home runs. The Phillies own a .313 on-base percentage and .401 slugging percentage. Their overall offensive production is remarkably close to Arizona's, as the Diamondbacks have scored only eight more runs and have a one-point advantage in batting average. Philadelphia, however, has hit 26 more home runs and owns a slightly higher slugging percentage.

The pitching numbers are similarly competitive. Philadelphia has a 4.07 team ERA and 1.29 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .247. The Phillies have recorded 1,340 strikeouts against 414 walks. The strikeout production stands out when compared with Arizona, which has recorded 945 strikeouts. Philadelphia therefore has a significant advantage in its ability to generate strikeouts even though the overall run-prevention numbers between these clubs are close.

Philadelphia's recent road success is another positive. The Phillies have won three straight away from home and are eight games above .500 on the road for the season. Their challenge Monday is overcoming a notable disadvantage in the starting pitching matchup against an Arizona club that has been particularly effective at Chase Field.

Diamondbacks Have the Starting Pitching Edge

Arizona enters Monday at 73-65 and sits nine games behind Los Angeles in the National League West. The Diamondbacks are 40-29 at Chase Field, giving them one of the more important statistical advantages in this matchup. Arizona is 3-2 over its last five games, although the Diamondbacks are coming off a 7-2 loss at San Francisco. Their recent victories include scores of 7-1, 10-6 and 2-0.

Arizona is batting .244 with 625 runs, 1,127 hits and 136 home runs. The Diamondbacks own a .316 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage. Arizona has a slight edge over Philadelphia in batting average, runs, hits and on-base percentage, while Philadelphia holds the advantage in power. The offensive profiles are close enough that Monday's pitching matchup could become the deciding factor.

The Diamondbacks carry a 4.18 team ERA and 1.29 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .250. Arizona has issued 413 walks and recorded 945 strikeouts. Philadelphia owns the better team ERA and opponent batting average, while the WHIP and walk totals are almost identical. The major pitching advantage for Arizona therefore comes from Monday's scheduled starter rather than the staff as a whole.

Arizona also has the advantage of playing at Chase Field, where it is 11 games above .500. The Diamondbacks have already taken two of three from Philadelphia this season, and every game in that April series was decided by exactly one run. Arizona won 5-4 and 4-3, while Philadelphia's victory came by a 4-3 score. That history suggests there may not be much separation between these clubs despite the difference in ESPN's matchup projection.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline

Arizona gets the nod in what should be one of Monday's more competitive games. Philadelphia enters with the better overall record and a three-game winning streak, but the Diamondbacks are 40-29 at Chase Field and hold a substantial advantage in the scheduled starting pitching matchup. Arizona's starter enters with a 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP compared with Philadelphia's 5.03 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Phillies' 32 home runs allowed by their scheduled starter are particularly concerning against an Arizona offense averaging nearly 4.53 runs per game based on the supplied season totals. Arizona has also won two of the first three meetings between these teams. Take the Arizona Diamondbacks on the moneyline once the market becomes available.

Pick: Under 9

The previous three meetings between Philadelphia and Arizona finished 5-4, 4-3 and 4-3, with two staying comfortably below nine runs and the other landing exactly on nine. Both teams also enter with nearly identical overall pitching numbers, including matching 1.29 WHIPs. Philadelphia's last three games have produced combined totals of six, eight and six runs, while Arizona recently played games producing nine, eight, 16, seven and two combined runs. The concern for the Under is Philadelphia's starting pitching profile, especially the home-run total, but Arizona's advantage on the mound should help limit the Phillies early. With the previous head-to-head results providing additional support, take the Under if the total is set at 9 or higher.

Final Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline and Under 9

This preview was completed before play on Sunday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.