Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 31, 2026
The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland, on Friday, July 31, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. Philadelphia enters the matchup with a 57-52 overall record and a 29-25 road record, while Baltimore is 53-56 overall and 29-27 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before wagering on Friday’s games.
Starting Pitchers for Phillies vs Orioles
Philadelphia’s starting pitcher remains undecided, while Brandon Young is scheduled to take the mound for Baltimore. Young enters with an 8-2 record, a 3.13 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP through 97.2 innings. He has allowed 92 hits, 34 walks and nine home runs while recording 80 strikeouts. With Philadelphia’s starter listed as undecided, the supplied pitching comparison gives Baltimore the only established starting line for this matchup.
Philadelphia Tries to Halt Its Recent Road Slide
Philadelphia enters Friday with a 57-52 overall record and a 29-25 mark away from home. The Phillies have won one of their last five games, recently earning an 11-4 victory over the Yankees. They recently lost to Miami by scores of 8-6, 1-0 and 8-7, along with a 3-1 defeat against the Yankees. Two of Philadelphia’s three recent losses to Miami were decided by one run, but the Phillies have dropped four of their last five overall.
The Phillies are batting .236 with 473 runs, 864 hits and 138 home runs. They carry a .303 on-base percentage and a .400 slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff owns a 4.26 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while issuing 319 walks and recording 1,061 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are batting .254 against the Phillies, who have compiled a 40-32 record in night games.
Philadelphia’s clearest statistical strength is its ability to record strikeouts while limiting walks. The Phillies have collected 196 more strikeouts than Baltimore while issuing 47 fewer walks. They also hold an 11-home-run advantage and have the better slugging percentage. However, Philadelphia has scored 28 fewer runs despite matching Baltimore with 864 hits, and its .303 on-base percentage trails the Orioles’ .321 mark. Turning those hits into more consistent run production will be important after scoring one run or fewer twice during the last five games.
Baltimore Seeks to Build on Its Camden Yards Record
Baltimore comes into the series opener with a 53-56 overall record and a 29-27 record at home. The Orioles have won three of their last five games, recently defeating Detroit by scores of 10-9 in 12 innings and 8-5 while also earning a 3-2 victory over Atlanta. Baltimore recently lost to Detroit 14-0 and fell to Atlanta 3-2 in 11 innings. Two of the Orioles’ last five games required extra innings, and three were decided by one run.
The Orioles are batting .237 with 501 runs, 864 hits and 127 home runs. Baltimore has a .321 on-base percentage and a .394 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff owns a 4.21 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP while issuing 366 walks and recording 865 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are batting .253 against Baltimore, which has produced a 29-32 record in night games.
Baltimore’s primary advantage is its ability to generate more runs and reach base more frequently. The Orioles have scored 501 runs compared with Philadelphia’s 473, even though the teams have recorded the same number of hits. Baltimore’s .321 on-base percentage is 18 points higher than Philadelphia’s mark, while its .237 batting average is narrowly better. The Orioles also enter with the slightly lower staff ERA and opponent batting average, and the matchup predictor gives Baltimore a 57.0% probability of winning compared with Philadelphia’s 43.0%.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction
Philadelphia holds the better overall and road records, but Baltimore has produced the stronger recent results. The Phillies are 57-52 and 29-25 away from home, while the Orioles are 53-56 and 29-27 at Camden Yards. Philadelphia has lost four of its last five games, whereas Baltimore has won three of five.
The team statistics show a close matchup. Philadelphia holds advantages in home runs, slugging percentage, WHIP, walks and strikeouts. Baltimore has the better batting average, run total, on-base percentage, ERA and opponent batting average. The Orioles also have the established starting pitcher and the higher matchup predictor percentage.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Pick
- Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline
Baltimore is the moneyline selection. The Orioles have won three of their last five games, while Philadelphia has dropped four of five. Baltimore has scored 28 more runs and owns the better on-base percentage despite the teams recording an identical 864 hits. The Orioles also have a 57.0% matchup predictor advantage and enter with a scheduled starter carrying an 8-2 record and a 3.13 ERA. Philadelphia’s stronger overall record and strikeout total should keep the matchup competitive, but the supplied information gives Baltimore the narrower edge at home.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Total Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Baltimore’s scheduled starter owns a 3.13 ERA and has allowed nine home runs through 97.2 innings. Philadelphia has scored one run or fewer in two of its last five games, while Baltimore has been held to three runs or fewer in three of its last five. I expect both clubs to have scoring opportunities, but the supplied recent results and Baltimore’s starting pitching numbers make the under the preferred total.
Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles 4 – Philadelphia Phillies 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.