Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 9, 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday at 5:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Philadelphia is 51-41 and sits second in the NL East, while Cincinnati is 41-49 and is fifth in the NL Central. The Phillies opened this series with a 4-1 victory on Tuesday after rebounding from consecutive losses in Kansas City. Cincinnati has dropped three of its last five games and continues to chase ground in the division standings. Be a winner with our free MLB picks.

Philadelphia Phillies Looking to Keep Pace in the NL East

Philadelphia has produced solid offensive numbers despite ranking near the middle of the league in batting average. The Phillies are hitting .238 as a team while scoring 407 runs on 737 hits with 121 home runs, a .304 on-base percentage, and a .403 slugging percentage. Kyle Schwarber continues to power the lineup with 31 home runs and 57 RBI while posting a .570 slugging percentage. Bryce Harper has matched Schwarber with 57 RBI while adding 20 home runs and a .370 on-base percentage. Brandon Marsh has been Philadelphia's most consistent contact hitter, batting .305 with 98 hits, 15 home runs, and 46 RBI. 

Philadelphia has also received dependable work from its pitching staff. The Phillies own a 4.21 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while ranking among the league leaders with 895 strikeouts. The rotation has consistently generated swing-and-miss stuff, and the club held Cincinnati to just one run in Tuesday's series opener. 

Injuries: Brad Keller, Johan Rojas, Adolis García.

Cincinnati Reds Looking to Respond at Home

Cincinnati has struggled to generate consistent offense this season. The Reds are batting .227 as a team while scoring 373 runs on 684 hits with 108 home runs, a .308 on-base percentage, and a .386 slugging percentage. Sal Stewart has been Cincinnati's top run producer with 17 home runs and 61 RBI, while Elly De La Cruz leads the club with a .270 batting average, 13 home runs, and 41 RBI. Spencer Steer has added 14 home runs, and JJ Bleday has contributed 13, but the lineup has lacked consistency throughout the season. 

The Reds have also struggled on the mound. Cincinnati enters with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP, ranking near the bottom half of the league in both categories. Opponents have consistently created traffic on the bases, and the pitching staff has had difficulty limiting big innings. 

Injuries: Blake Dunn, Dane Myers, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson.

Pitching Matchup

Philadelphia Phillies – Jesús Luzardo

Luzardo is 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP across 103.1 innings this season. The left-hander has allowed 98 hits while striking out 125 batters and walking 33. Luzardo has consistently missed bats throughout the season and gives Philadelphia a reliable starter capable of working deep into the game.

Cincinnati Reds – Brady Singer

Singer enters with a 3-8 record, a 5.03 ERA, and a 1.54 WHIP over 82.1 innings. He has surrendered 97 hits, including 20 home runs, while recording 71 strikeouts and issuing 30 walks. Singer has struggled with consistency throughout the season and faces a Philadelphia lineup with multiple power threats.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Game Pick

• Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia has the edge in both the pitching matchup and overall roster. Luzardo has been far more dependable than Singer, and the Phillies feature more power throughout the lineup with Schwarber, Harper, and Marsh leading the way. Cincinnati continues to struggle offensively and enters after scoring just one run in the series opener. Philadelphia is the play.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Over/Under Pick

• Over

Philadelphia's lineup has enough power to take advantage of Singer's struggles, particularly his tendency to allow home runs. Cincinnati should also create some opportunities against Luzardo in a hitter-friendly ballpark. With one starter carrying an ERA above 5.00 and Great American Ball Park often producing offense, the over will cash on Thursday.