Philadelphia Phillies vs. LA Dodgers, Game 4, Prediction and Picks for Thursday, October 9th, 2025
It was an offensive onslaught from the Philadelphia Phillies (1-2) on Wednesday night, as they defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers (2-1) 8-2 to stave off elimination. The National League foes are back at it on Thursday for Game 4, and we’ve got you covered with our Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction. Below I’ll dive into each team’s path to the NLDS and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 6:08 ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Phillies Bounce Back, Hammer Dodgers
The Philadelphia Phillies cruised to a division title in 2025, going 96-66 and finishing with a 13.0-game cushion over the second-place Mets. This earned them the second seed in the National League, which meant the Phils avoided playing in the wild card round. The Phillies drew the third-seeded Dodgers in the NLDS round, and they dropped both of the opening games (5-3, 4-3) in Philadelphia. Following a built-in travel day, the Phillies bounced back and hammered the Dodgers 8-2 in Game 3 on Wednesday night. Philadelphia still needs to win two more games to complete the comeback, and they’re priced at +290 to do so. They also sit at +1000 to win the World Series.
The Phillies were trailing 1-0 heading into the 4th inning on Wednesday night, but one of Kyle Schwarber’s two home runs knotted the game at 1-1. The Phillies went on to score seven more consecutive runs and secure the win. Trea Turner went 3-for-5 with two RBI and a run scored, while J.T. Realmuto also homered in a 2-for-5 day at the dish. Ranger Suarez (5.0 IP, 1 ER) earned the win in relief, following a 2.0-inning start from Aaron Nola (0 ER).
- Cristopher Sanchez gets the nod in Thursday’s do-or-die contest, and this will be his second outing of the series already.
- The left-hander pitched in Game 1 on Saturday (4 days of rest), and he gave up two earned runs on four hits and two walks over 5.2 innings.
- He took a no-decision in a game that the Phillies lost 5-3.
- Sanchez was superb during the regular season, making 32 starts (202.0 IP) and going 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA (fifth) and a 1.06 WHIP (12th). His 212 strikeouts were seventh in the Majors.
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Dodgers Drop Game 3 at Home
The Los Angeles Dodgers got out to a commanding 2-0 series lead in the NLDS (5-3, 4-3), and like hitters in baseball, they’ll now have three strikes to close out the series and advance to their eighth NLCS in the last 13 years. The Dodgers swung and missed in their first chance, losing 8-2 as the series shifted west to Los Angeles. Dave Roberts’ club is still a sizable favorite to move onto the NLCS, sitting at -360. The reigning champions are priced at +200 to repeat and win the World Series again.
What’s noteworthy is that the Dodgers used up their ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (4.0 IP, 3 ER) in Wednesday’s 8-2 defeat. He took the loss for the home team. Offensively, runs were tough to come by. Tommy Edman smacked a solo home run in the 3rd and added a garbage-time RBI-single in the 9th. Los Angeles collected eight hits as a team, but went 1-for-7 with RISP and left eight runners on base.
- Tyler Glasnow will oppose Sanchez on Thursday evening, and he also made an appearance in Saturday’s series opener in Philadelphia.
- The right-hander logged a hold, tossing 1.2 scoreless innings and allowing two hits and two walks.
- Glasnow was solid during the regular season, making 18 starts (90.1 IP) and going 4-3 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
- In 47.1 innings of career postseason work, he has a 5.51 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP.
Phillies vs. Dodgers Pick
Moneyline Pick for Phillies vs. Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-116) (5 units)
The Dodgers were very good at home this season, going 52-29 SU in L.A. Additionally, Wednesday’s loss marked their first since September 23rd. The Dodgers had previously won nine consecutive games, as well as 13 of their last 15 overall. This team is on fire, and I don’t think that they’ll mess up another closeout opportunity at home.
I was actually surprised to see Cristopher Sanchez (5.2 IP, 2 ER) pitch so well in Saturday’s series opener. Mainly, that’s because he made two starts against Los Angeles during the regular season and gave up eight earned runs (5.68 ERA). Seeing him twice in five days is an advantage for the Dodgers, and I expect to see them take care of business in this one.
Over/Under Pick for Phillies vs. Dodgers
- Over 7.5 (-115) (5 units)
I’m also jumping on the over in this game. Circling back to the Dodgers’ offense, they’ve seen Sanchez well, slashing .244/.285/.407 against him in 123 head-to-head at-bats. Sanchez’s road ERA was also 3.02 this season, compared to 1.94 at home.
On the flip side, the Phillies finally saw their bats wake up on Wednesday night. They put up eight runs and are now averaging 4.7 runs per game this series. Philadelphia will take on Tyler Glasnow, and they’ve turned in decent head-to-head numbers against him in the past. The Phillies are slashing .246/.350/.391 against him over 69 at-bats. That’s not overpowering, but you’ll take that when it’s postseason time, since you’re always running into quality pitching. Finally, I still have my concerns with the Los Angeles bullpen, which is 11th in ERA (7.04) out of 12 postseason teams. Give me the over.
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