Philadelphia Phillies vs. LA Dodgers, Game 3, Prediction and Picks for Wednesday, October 8th, 2025
The reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers (2-0) have stunned the second-seeded Philadelphia Phillies (0-2) to start the NLDS, winning both games in the City of Brotherly Love. The best-of-five series returns to L.A. for Game 3 on Wednesday, and we’ve got you covered with our Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 9:08 ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Phillies’ Backs Against the Wall
After a pretty dominant 96-66 regular-season campaign for Manager Rob Thomson and his Philadelphia Phillies, things are looking bleak just two games into their 2025 postseason run. The Phillies have only played twice, but they’ve suffered two losses to the Dodgers (5-3, 4-3) and are now facing elimination in this best-of-five series. At this point, Philadelphia is a +836 longshot to come back and win the series. They sit at +2800 to win the World Series.
Monday’s 4-3 loss to the Dodgers saw the offense struggle mightily. The Phillies didn’t score until the 8th inning when Trea Turner logged an RBI single. They weren’t able to complete the comeback in the 9th after a two-run double from Nick Castellanos, and ultimately lost 4-3. The loss fell on Jesus Luzardo (6.0 IP, 2 ER), even though he was very solid in his start.
- Aaron Nola gets the nod for Wednesday’s do-or-die game, and the 32-year-old starter is coming off a horrendous campaign.
- In 17 starts (94.1 IP), the right-hander went 5-10 with a 6.01 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.
- Nola hasn’t pitched since September 26th, but he did turn in an 8.0-inning gem against the Twins, limiting them to one earned run on two hits.
- He picked up the win in the 3-1 victory, as the team improved to 7-10 in his starts this season.
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Dodgers Win Ninth Straight Game
Meanwhile, the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers are catching fire at the right time. They’ve won their last nine games overall, which includes a wild card sweep of the Reds (10-5, 8-4) and two wins to start this divisional series against the Phillies (5-3, 4-3). After entering the postseason at +500 to win the World Series, the champs are down to just +175 to repeat. Los Angeles is a massive -1400 favorite to advance to the NLCS.
The Dodgers used a dominant 6.0-inning scoreless effort from Blake Snell to win Game 2 in Philadelphia on Monday. The southpaw picked up the win after racking up nine strikeouts and only allowing one hit. Offensively, Los Angeles scored all four runs in the 7th inning. Kike Hernandez registered an RBI groundout, Will Smith drove in two runs with a single, and Shohei Ohtani added an extra run with a single in the same inning. Things got hairy in the 9th, but Roki Sasaki (0.1 IP, 0 ER) slammed the door and picked up his second postseason save.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto will oppose Nola on Wednesday night, and he was lights out during the regular season (30 starts, 173.2 IP).
- The right-hander went 12-8 with a 2.49 ERA (fourth) and a 0.99 WHIP (sixth). His 201 strikeouts were the 11th-most in the Majors.
- Yamamoto already has a start under his belt this postseason, and it was a dominant 6.2-inning effort against the Reds, where he gave up only two unearned runs on four hits and two walks.
- He racked up nine punchouts and earned the win in an 8-4 victory.
Phillies vs. Dodgers Pick
Run Line Pick for Phillies vs. Dodgers
- Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-145) (5 units)
After getting out to a 2-0 lead, the Dodgers are now a -1400 favorite to win the series and advance to the NLCS. I agree that this series is over, but from a game-by-game perspective, I do think it’s best to ride with the Phillies +1.5 runs in Game 3 on Wednesday night.
There are three main reasons why I like Philadelphia +1.5 in this spot. First, their backs are against the wall, so it’s going to be an “all hands on deck” approach from Rob Thomson. Second, Aaron Nola, even though he has been underwhelming this season, has performed well against the Dodgers in the past. Their current roster is slashing just .220/.267/.378 against him over 246 at-bats. Finally, the questions surrounding Los Angeles’ bullpen still loom large. Aside from Roki Sasaki–who for some reason, Dave Roberts only waits until emergencies to use–this relief staff leaves much to be desired. I’ll take the 1.5 runs with Philly in this do-or-die spot.
Over/Under Pick for Phillies vs. Dodgers
- Over 7.5 (-120) (5 units)
While I anticipate seeing Nola help keep his team in the game, I’m not expecting him to dominate this potent Los Angeles offense. We can’t just gloss over the fact that the right-hander posted a 6.01 ERA during the regular season. I mean, he was just brutal. He’ll be tasked with trying to slow down a Los Angeles offense that’s averaging 6.0 runs per game during its current nine-game winning streak.
On that note, these were two of the best offenses in the Majors this season. The Dodgers were second in scoring (5.13 RPG), while the Phillies were eighth (4.78 RPG). Both bullpens have been questionable this postseason. Out of 12 teams, Los Angeles is eighth in relief ERA (6.97), while Philadelphia is ninth (7.11). With these two star-studded offenses moving to a warm climate, I think there’s enough data here to support a bet on the over of either 7.5 (-120) or 8.0 (+100).
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