Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 5, 2025
In our Phillies vs. Marlins prediction, the Philadelphia Phillies are first in the NL East with an 81-59 record so far. They are having young left-hander Cristopher Sanchez get the start as he is coming off a no-decision against the Atlanta Braves where he pitched seven innings and allowed one run on seven hits with zero walks and eight strikeouts.
The Miami Marlins are looking to stay competitive as they are sitting in third place in the NL East with a 65-75 record entering this game. Young righty Valente Bellozo will be taking the ball and did not factor into the decision last time out against the New York Mets, where he pitched 4.1 innings and gave up one run on four hits with two walks and three strikeouts.
From splits to bullpens, MLB predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins.
Phillies Continue to Impress
The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to continue swinging well as the team is eighth in the sport with a .750 team OPS while averaging 4.75 runs per game. They have been a good team hitting for power as they are 11th with 172 home runs hit. Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber has been dominating as he has a .935 OPS with 49 home runs, 119 RBI, 96 runs scored, and 10 steals on 12 attempts.
Cristopher Sanchez has been pitching well, according to his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 87th percentile in barrel percentage, 86th percentile in xERA, 83rd percentile in whiff percentage, and 83rd percentile in walk percentage. He has a three-pitch arsenal (sinker, changeup, slider) and his changeup has been dominating as hitters have a .167 batting average and .231 slugging percentage against it with one homer and 114 strikeouts. Sanchez faced the Marlins once this season in a victory as he pitched eight innings and allowed one run on five hits with zero walks and four strikeouts.
Injury Report for Philadelphia
- Pitcgher Daniel Robert: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Zack Wheeler: Blood Clot (OUT)
- Pitcher Jordan Romano: Finger (OUT)
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Marlins Looking to Continue Improving
The Miami Marlins are doing an okay job at the plate as they are 20th in the bigs with a .706 team OPS while scoring 4.33 runs per game. The team has been pretty aggressive at the plate as their 420 total walks ranks 23rd in MLB. Second baseman Xavier Edwards has to improve a bit at the plate as he has a .281/.338/.352 slash line with a pair of homers, 34 RBI, 69 runs scored, and 24 steals on 31 tries.
Valente Bellozo is struggling this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page as he is in the eighth percentile in strikeout percentage, 14th percentile in whiff percentage, 19th percentile in xERA, and 21st percentile in chase percentage. He has six different pitches (cutter, fastball, sweeper, changeup, curveball, splitter) and his sweeper has been his best pitch as hitters have a .146 batting average and .167 slugging percentage with zero home runs and 13 strikeouts. Bellozo faced the Phillies twice this season out of the bullpen as he is 0-0 in 4.0 innings and allowed one run on five hits with zero walks and two strikeouts.
Injury Report for Miami
- Pitcher Edward Cabrera: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Tyler Zuber: Lat (OUT)
- Pitcher Anthony Bender: Tibia (OUT)
- Center fielder Dane Myers: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Gusto: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Janson Junk: Arm (OUT)
- Third baseman Graham Pauley: Oblique (OUT)
- Left fielder Kyle Stowers: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Jesus Tinoco: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Max Meyer: Hip (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Weathers: Lat (OUT)
- Left fielder Griffin Conine: Arm (OUT)
- Pitcher Andrew Nardi: Back (OUT)
- Pitcher Braxton Garrett: Elbow (OUT)
Phillies vs. Marlins Pick
Spread Pick for Philles vs. Marlins
- Philadelphia Phillies ML (5 units)
During August, these pitchers are on two completely different levels as Cristopher Sanchez was 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA and a .257 batting average against in 38.2 innings (six starts) while Valente Bellozo finished 0-0 with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 17.0 innings (seven games, zero starts). Since the All-Star break, these teams are on completely different levels in terms of hitting home runs. Philadelphia ranks third in the sport with 21.46 at-bats between home runs, while Miami is all the way down at 25th with 33.96 at-bats between homers. Philly is 5-2 in their seven games against Miami this year, so go with the Philadelphia Phillies to win this game.
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Over/Under Pick for Phillies vs. Marlins
- UNDER (4 units)
The road/home splits show these pitchers are going to limit the amount of runs allowed as Cristopher Sanchez is 6-5 with a 2.99 ERA and a .251 batting average against in 90.1 innings (15 road starts) while Valente Bellozo is 1-1 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 40.0 innings (14 home games, three starts) this season. During the last few weeks, these teams are not scoring as hot as Philly is averaging 4.69 runs in their last 13 games while Miami is scoring 4.38 runs in their previous 13 games. All in all, take the UNDER here.
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