Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Monday, July 27, 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, on Monday, July 27, 2026. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, with MLB.TV providing television coverage. The game-time temperature is listed at 87 degrees. Philadelphia enters the matchup at 56-49 overall with a 29-22 record on the road, while Miami is 52-53 overall and 31-22 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Phillies a 55.3% chance of winning, compared with 44.7% for the Marlins. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before wagering on Monday’s MLB schedule.

Starting Pitchers for Philadelphia and Miami

Zack Wheeler is scheduled to start for Philadelphia against Miami right-hander Tyler Phillips. Wheeler enters with a 10-2 record, a 2.16 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP through 100 innings. He has allowed 66 hits and 11 home runs while recording 117 strikeouts against 22 walks. Phillips is 2-5 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP across 79.1 innings. He has surrendered 74 hits and nine home runs while collecting 58 strikeouts and issuing 36 walks. Wheeler holds the advantage in record, ERA, WHIP, innings, hits allowed, strikeouts and walks. Phillips has surrendered two fewer home runs, although he has worked 20.2 fewer innings.

Philadelphia Tries to End Its Recent Slide

Philadelphia enters Monday with a 56-49 overall record and an impressive 29-22 mark away from home. The Phillies have recently lost twice to the New York Yankees by scores of 3-1 and 1-0. They also recently dropped two games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, falling 9-5 and 2-1. Their only victory during the supplied five-game stretch was a 10-7 win over Los Angeles, leaving Philadelphia with one win and four losses over its last five games.

The Phillies are batting .235 with a .301 on-base percentage and a .399 slugging percentage. They have accumulated 828 hits, scored 449 runs and hit 135 home runs. Philadelphia’s pitching staff owns a 4.21 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .253. The staff has recorded 1,027 strikeouts and issued 303 walks. Philadelphia also carries a 17-19 record in day games.

Philadelphia’s most apparent strength is its power and ability to record strikeouts. The Phillies have hit 135 home runs, which is 29 more than Miami’s total, despite trailing the Marlins in hits and runs. Their pitching staff has also registered 148 more strikeouts while issuing 59 fewer walks. The primary concern is Philadelphia’s recent offensive production. The Phillies scored two runs or fewer in three of their last four games and have lost four consecutive contests.

Miami Hopes Its Home Record Sparks a Turnaround

Miami enters the contest one game below .500 at 52-53 overall, but the Marlins have been much stronger at loanDepot park, where they own a 31-22 record. Miami recently lost twice at home against San Diego by scores of 7-2 and 4-2. The Marlins also dropped three games on the road against Houston, losing 5-2, 5-3 and 8-5. Miami has therefore lost each of its five most recently provided games.

The Marlins are hitting .250 with a .326 on-base percentage and a .405 slugging percentage. They have collected 875 hits, scored 461 runs and produced 106 home runs. Miami’s pitching staff carries a 4.08 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP while holding opponents to a .230 batting average. The Marlins have recorded 879 strikeouts and issued 362 walks. Their supplied day-game record stands at 24-21.

Miami’s strongest argument is its advantage across several rate statistics. The Marlins lead Philadelphia in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage while holding advantages of 47 hits and 12 runs. Their pitching staff also has the better ERA, WHIP and opposing batting average. Miami’s weakness is its current five-game losing streak, during which it surrendered at least four runs in every game and scored three runs or fewer four times.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Pick

• Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline

Philadelphia and Miami both enter this game in difficult recent form, with the Phillies losing four straight and the Marlins dropping five consecutive contests. Miami owns the better team batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA and WHIP, along with a 31-22 home record. However, Philadelphia brings a winning 29-22 road record into the matchup and holds the more favorable starting-pitching numbers. The Phillies’ scheduled starter is 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, while ESPN Analytics gives Philadelphia a 55.3% winning probability. Those advantages make the Phillies my moneyline selection.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Total Pick

• Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. I would take the under because both offenses have struggled throughout their most recently provided results. Philadelphia has scored two runs or fewer in three of its last four games, while Miami has been held to three runs or fewer in four consecutive contests. The scheduled Philadelphia starter has a 2.16 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, and the Miami starter carries a 3.52 ERA. Six of the teams’ combined 10 most recently supplied games finished with eight or fewer runs, supporting a lower-scoring prediction.

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 4 – Miami Marlins 2

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Sunday.