Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, July 28, 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. The game is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. The game-time temperature is expected to be 88 degrees. Philadelphia enters at 57-49 overall and 29-22 on the road, while Miami is 52-54 overall and 31-23 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Marlins a 62.3% chance of winning, compared with 37.7% for the Phillies. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks⁠.

Starting Pitchers for Tuesday in Miami

Aaron Nola is the probable starter for Philadelphia, entering with a 3-8 record, 5.82 ERA, and 1.45 WHIP. The right-hander has pitched 108.1 innings, allowing 121 hits, 36 walks, and 25 home runs while recording 112 strikeouts. Miami is expected to counter with Sandy Alcantara, who owns a 10-6 record with a 4.01 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The right-hander has completed 143.2 innings, surrendering 139 hits, 38 walks, and 17 home runs while collecting 110 strikeouts. Miami’s probable starter holds the advantage in record, ERA, WHIP, innings pitched, and home runs allowed.

Philadelphia Attempts to Build on an Offensive Breakthrough

Philadelphia enters Tuesday’s matchup with a 57-49 overall record and a strong 29-22 mark away from home. The Phillies recently won over the New York Yankees 11-4, snapping a four-game losing streak. Philadelphia had previously lost to New York by scores of 3-1 and 1-0 after losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers 9-5 and 2-1. The Phillies have therefore won one of their last five games, although their latest performance produced their highest scoring total during that stretch.

The Phillies are batting .236 with 460 runs, 841 hits, and 136 home runs. Philadelphia owns a .303 on-base percentage and a .401 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff has compiled a 4.21 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .253. The Phillies have issued 307 walks and recorded 1,040 strikeouts. Philadelphia has also produced a 17-19 record in day games.

Philadelphia’s clearest strength is its ability to generate power and strikeouts. The Phillies have hit 29 more home runs than Miami and have recorded 153 more strikeouts on the pitching side. However, Philadelphia’s recent offensive production has been inconsistent. Before scoring 11 runs in its latest victory, the club had managed only seven total runs across four consecutive losses. The Phillies possess the better overall and road records, but they will need their latest offensive performance to carry into Tuesday’s matchup.

Miami Looks to Reverse Its Slide at Home

Miami enters the series with a 52-54 overall record and a 31-23 record at loanDepot park. The Marlins have lost five consecutive games, most recently falling to the San Diego Padres by scores of 5-3, 7-2, and 4-2. Miami also recently lost to the Houston Astros 5-2 and 5-3. Although the Marlins have struggled during this stretch, all five defeats came by four runs or fewer, and three were decided by exactly two runs.

The Marlins are batting .250 with 464 runs, 880 hits, and 107 home runs. Miami has posted a .325 on-base percentage and a .404 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff owns a 4.09 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while holding opponents to a .232 batting average. The Marlins have issued 362 walks and recorded 887 strikeouts. Miami carries a 24-22 record in day games.

Miami’s primary strength is its collection of efficiency advantages. The Marlins hold the better batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage while also producing four more runs and 39 more hits. Their pitching staff has the lower ERA and WHIP and has limited opposing hitters to a batting average 21 points lower than Philadelphia’s staff. Miami has not scored more than three runs in any of its last five games, but its 31-23 home record, pitching advantages, and 62.3% matchup-predictor edge provide reasons to expect a more competitive performance.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Pick

• Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Miami is the preferred side at home. The Marlins possess the stronger home record compared with Philadelphia’s road mark, and ESPN Analytics gives Miami a 62.3% chance of winning. Miami also holds advantages in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, team ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. The probable pitching matchup further favors the Marlins, whose starter owns the better record, ERA, and WHIP. Philadelphia has the stronger overall record and ended its losing streak with an 11-run performance, but Miami’s broader statistical advantages support the home side.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Total Pick

• Pick: Under

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. I am taking the under because Miami has scored only 12 runs across its last five games, reaching three runs just twice. Four of Philadelphia’s last five contests also finished with eight combined runs or fewer. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA and has held opponents to a .232 batting average, while its probable starter owns a 4.01 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Philadelphia’s latest game produced 15 total runs, but the other four games in its recent stretch generated totals of four, one, 14, and three. The supplied results provide enough support for an under selection at 8.5.

Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins 4 – Philadelphia Phillies 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Monday.