Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
Use Code SSWC The MLB action continues on Saturday with a divisional matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies (82-59) and the Miami Marlins (65-76), and we’ve got you covered with our Phillies vs. Marlins prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 4:10 ET from loanDepot park in Miami, FL. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Phillies Sit Atop the N.L. East
The Philadelphia Phillies have had an up-and-down season, but they’re finding their form and have been on fire in the second half. Entering the weekend, the Phillies sit at 82-59 and hold the divisional lead. Philadelphia has a 6.0-game edge over second-place New York in the N.L. East. At this point, only the Brewers (87-55) are better in the National League. From a sports betting perspective, the Phillies are priced at +800 to win the World Series. In terms of recent form, they’ve won two straight games, toppling the Brewers (2-0) and the Marlins (9-3).
The offense was plentiful in Friday’s 9-3 victory over the Marlins, and Trea Turner led the way with a 4-for-5 day. Max Kepler, Brandon Marsh, Harrison Bader, and Bryson Stott all homered in the win. Cristopher Sanchez (7.0 IP, 1 ER) turned in a quality start and picked up the win.
- Jesus Luzardo gets the nod on Saturday, and the 27-year-old hurler has been solid in his debut campaign with the Phillies.
- Across 28 starts (155.2 IP), the left-hander has gone 12-6 with a 4.05 ERA (32nd) and a 1.28 WHIP (32nd).
- Luzardo last started on Sunday against the Braves, and he blanked them over 6.2 innings, allowing only two hits and a walk.
- It was a no-decision effort in a game that the Phillies lost 3-1.
Marlins Drop Fourth Straight
As for the Miami Marlins, they’ve proven to be a scrappy opponent this season, but the playoffs are likely out of the question for them. The Fish are 65-76 overall, which puts them 11.0 games out of the wild card race. They’re in third place in the N.L. East, but sit 17.0 games out of the division. Miami is in the midst of a four-game slide. They got swept by Washington (2-0, 5-2, 10-5) in their midweek series before losing Friday’s series-opening game to Philadelphia (9-3).
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Friday’s 9-3 loss ultimately fell on Valente Bellozo in the starter’s role, as he only lasted 3.0 innings and gave up two earned runs. Offensively, Brian Navarreto went 1-for-1 with a two-run home run.
- Sandy Alcantara will oppose Luzardo on Saturday, and it has been a rough campaign for the 29-year-old.
- In 27 outings (148.0 IP), the right-hander is 8-11 with a 5.66 ERA (56th) and a 1.32 WHIP (42nd).
- Alcantara has been heating up recently, and he’s coming off of a 7.0-inning gem against the Mets, where he held them to one earned run on four hits and a walk.
- He picked up the win in the 5-1 victory.
Phillies vs. Marlins Pick
Moneyline Pick for Phillies vs. Marlins
- Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-150) (5 units)
This is a great pitching matchup between Jesus Luzardo and Sandy Alcantara, but when the dust settles in Miami on Saturday, I anticipate the Phillies emerging victorious. I’ll play Philadelphia on the moneyline.
Ultimately, in a game featuring an even pitching matchup, I simply believe that Philadelphia’ superior offense will lead the way to victory. The Phillies have had Alcantara’s number in the past, as their current roster is slashing .301/.359/.462 against him over 286 at-bats. The Marlins also own the 23rd-ranked bullpen in terms of ERA (4.39), so Philadelphia should find enough run support to issue Miami its fifth straight defeat.
Over/Under Pick for Phillies vs. Marlins
- Under 8.0 (-105) (5 units)
While I anticipate the Phillies finding enough offense to win this game, I’m not expecting them to go nuclear. They’re running into Alcantara, who has been exceptional in his last four starts (27.0 IP). During the stretch, he has posted four quality starts and a 1.67 ERA.
On the flip side, Luzardo has dominated the Marlins in the past. In 31 head-to-head at-bats, their current roster is slashing .194/.265/.290 against him. Furthermore, over the last seven days, the Marlins are just 18th in wOBA (.310), while the Phillies are 22nd (.296). I’m taking the under.
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