Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Friday June 26 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Mets on Friday, June 26, 2026, at Citi Field in Queens, New York, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 PM ET and coverage available on MLB.TV. Philadelphia enters at 44-36 overall and 21-17 away from home, while New York comes in at 34-46 overall and 18-21 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers Shape the Early Outlook

Zack Wheeler is listed as the probable starter for Philadelphia, and he enters this matchup with a 7-1 record, a 2.11 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, 68.1 innings pitched, 42 hits allowed, 69 strikeouts, 18 walks, and eight home runs allowed. New York has not yet announced a starting pitcher for this matchup. Based on the provided pitching information, Philadelphia has the clear advantage in the listed starting pitching spot, with Wheeler bringing strong numbers in record, ERA, WHIP, hits allowed, and strikeouts.

Philadelphia Brings Momentum Into Queens

Philadelphia enters this matchup with a 44-36 overall record and a 21-17 mark on the road. The Phillies have recently won over Washington by scores of 5-4 and 14-9, recently lost to Washington 4-1, and recently won over New York by scores of 6-2 and 15-3. That gives Philadelphia four wins in its last five games, including two recent victories over this same New York team.

The Phillies are batting .234 with 349 runs, 629 hits, 104 home runs, a .300 on-base percentage, and a .399 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.12 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, 220 walks, 760 strikeouts, and a .256 opponent batting average. Philadelphia is also 14-14 in day games.

Philadelphia’s biggest strength is its combination of power and strikeout production. The Phillies have hit 104 home runs, which is higher than New York’s total, and their pitching staff has recorded 760 strikeouts. Even though the batting average is only slightly higher than New York’s, Philadelphia has produced more runs and more power, which gives the road team a strong statistical edge.

New York Looks for a Needed Home Response

New York comes into this game with a 34-46 overall record and an 18-21 record at home. The Mets have recently lost to Chicago by scores of 10-5, 10-3, and 9-6, and they also recently lost to Philadelphia by scores of 6-2 and 15-3. That makes five straight recent losses, including two against the Phillies before this matchup at Citi Field.

The Mets are batting .231 with 325 runs, 619 hits, 90 home runs, a .298 on-base percentage, and a .376 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, New York has a 4.22 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, 288 walks, 729 strikeouts, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Mets are also 16-18 in day games.

New York’s best statistical point is opponent batting average, where the Mets sit at .234 compared with Philadelphia’s .256. However, the broader concern is that New York trails Philadelphia in overall record, home and road comparison, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, walks allowed, and strikeouts. Those gaps put pressure on the Mets to find a cleaner performance than the recent results show.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Pick

• Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline

Philadelphia is the pick because the Phillies have the better overall record, the stronger road mark, and the clear matchup predictor advantage at 63.0 percent compared with 37.0 percent for New York. Philadelphia has also won four of its last five games, while New York has lost five straight based on the provided results. The Phillies hold the edge in runs, hits, home runs, slugging percentage, ERA, walks allowed, and strikeouts, making them the stronger side in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Total Pick

• Pick: Take the over if the total is set at 8.5.

I would lean over if the total is set at 8.5 because Philadelphia has recently scored 14, 6, and 15 runs in three of its last five games, while New York has allowed 10, 10, 9, 6, and 15 runs across its last five results. Philadelphia also brings 104 home runs and 349 runs into the matchup. Even with a strong listed starting pitcher for Philadelphia, the recent New York results and Philadelphia’s power profile point me toward enough scoring to clear that number.

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 6 – New York Mets 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.