Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Saturday June 27 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies head to Citi Field in Queens, New York, for a Saturday afternoon meeting with the New York Mets. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM on June 27, 2026, with coverage available on MLB.TV. Philadelphia enters the contest with a 45-36 overall record and a 22-17 record on the road, while New York is 34-47 overall and 18-22 at home. ESPN Analytics views this matchup as nearly even, giving the Mets a slight 50.3% edge compared to 49.7% for the Phillies. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers Take Center Stage

Philadelphia is scheduled to start Alan Rangel, who has made an impressive beginning to his season. He enters with a 0-0 record, a 2.25 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP over 8.0 innings. Rangel has allowed eight hits, struck out nine batters, issued no walks, and surrendered one home run. New York has not yet announced a starting pitcher for this game.

Phillies Bring Momentum into Queens

Philadelphia arrives with a 45-36 overall record and has played well away from home, posting a 22-17 mark. The Phillies have won four of their last five games, recently defeating Washington three straight times and also earning a win over the Mets before suffering their only loss during that stretch against Washington. Their latest performance was a convincing 10-5 victory, giving them momentum heading into this divisional matchup.

The Phillies are batting .236 as a team while scoring 359 runs on 642 hits with 107 home runs. They own a .302 on-base percentage and a .402 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries a 4.14 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP while recording 772 strikeouts and holding opponents to a .256 batting average. Philadelphia is 14-14 in day games this season.

One of Philadelphia’s biggest advantages is its power production. The Phillies have hit 107 home runs compared to New York’s 92 while also scoring more runs overall. They also hold the edge in strikeouts by their pitching staff, giving them another statistical advantage entering Saturday.

Mets Hoping to Reverse a Difficult Stretch

New York enters this contest with a 34-47 overall record and an 18-22 mark at Citi Field. The Mets have dropped each of their last five games, recently losing four straight contests to the Cubs before also falling to Philadelphia. Their most recent game ended in a 4-3 loss in 10 innings, showing they have remained competitive despite the losing streak.

The Mets are batting .231 with 328 runs, 628 hits, and 92 home runs. They own a .299 on-base percentage and a .377 slugging percentage. On the mound, New York has posted a 4.17 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP while striking out 741 batters and limiting opponents to a .233 batting average. The Mets are 16-18 in day games.

The strongest statistical category for New York is opponent batting average. The Mets have held opposing hitters to a .233 average, which is lower than Philadelphia’s .256 mark. However, New York trails the Phillies in runs scored, home runs, and slugging percentage, making offensive consistency an important factor in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Pick

• Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline

Philadelphia enters with the better overall record, the stronger road record, and significantly more momentum after winning four of its last five games. The Phillies also hold advantages in runs scored, home runs, slugging percentage, and pitching strikeouts. Even though the matchup predictor is nearly even, I like Philadelphia to continue its recent success.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Total Pick

• Pick: Take the under if the total is set at 8.0.

I would lean toward the under if the total is set at 8.0. Philadelphia’s starter has posted a 2.25 ERA and has not issued a walk in 8.0 innings, while both teams have season ERAs just over 4.00. With the Mets struggling offensively during their recent stretch, this looks like a matchup that could stay below the total.

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 5 – New York Mets 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.