Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Sunday June 28 2026
Use Code SSWC The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets continue their series at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Sunday, June 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 PM ET with television coverage available on ESPN Unlmtd and MLB.TV. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Phillies a 54.6 percent chance to win, while the Mets are listed at 45.4 percent. Be sure to check out our free MLB Picks.
Starting Pitchers Take Center Stage
Jesus Luzardo is scheduled to start for Philadelphia and enters the game with a 6-4 record, a 4.39 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, 92.1 innings pitched, 91 hits allowed, 110 strikeouts, 30 walks, and 9 home runs allowed. New York has not yet announced its starting pitcher for this matchup.
Philadelphia Brings Momentum Into the Series Finale
Philadelphia enters Sunday's contest with a 46-36 overall record and a solid 23-17 mark on the road. The Phillies recently won over the Mets, recently almost swept through Washington with three consecutive victories, and recently lost to Washington before beginning their current winning stretch. Winning four of their last five games has helped Philadelphia maintain positive momentum heading into this matchup.
The Phillies are batting .236 as a team while scoring 361 runs on 651 hits with 107 home runs. They own a .302 on-base percentage and a .401 slugging percentage. On the mound, Philadelphia has produced a 4.10 team ERA with a 1.29 WHIP while allowing a .255 opponent batting average. The pitching staff has also recorded 779 strikeouts with 222 walks. In day games, the Phillies are 14-14.
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One of Philadelphia's biggest strengths is its power production. The club has already hit 107 home runs, which stands out among the supplied offensive numbers. The pitching staff has also generated a high strikeout total, giving the Phillies another area where they have consistently produced throughout the season.
New York Searches for a Turnaround at Home
The Mets come into this contest with a 34-48 overall record and an 18-23 record at Citi Field. New York recently lost to Philadelphia and also dropped four straight games against Chicago before this series began. Those five consecutive defeats have created a challenging stretch as the Mets try to reverse their recent results.
New York is batting .231 with 329 runs, 633 hits, and 92 home runs. The Mets have compiled a .297 on-base percentage and a .375 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.14 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .234 batting average. The staff has totaled 750 strikeouts with 292 walks. During day games, New York has posted a 16-18 record.
The biggest positive for the Mets has been their ability to limit opposing hitters to a .234 batting average, which is lower than Philadelphia's .255 opponent average. However, New York has scored fewer runs, collected fewer hits, and hit fewer home runs than the Phillies, making consistent offensive production an area they will need to improve.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Pick
- Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
Philadelphia has the edge entering this matchup based on the information provided. The Phillies have the better overall record, the stronger road record, the higher matchup predictor percentage, and they have won four of their last five games. They also defeated the Mets in the opening game of the series and have produced more home runs and runs scored this season than New York.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Total Pick
- Take the under if the total is set at 8.5.
I like the under in this matchup because both teams have team ERAs that are close to one another, and Philadelphia's listed starter has recorded 110 strikeouts over 92.1 innings. New York has also held opponents to a .234 batting average this season, so I believe the pitching numbers provided point toward a lower-scoring game.
Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 5 – New York Mets 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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