Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 20 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Mets at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Sunday, September 20, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Philadelphia enters at 85-69 overall and 44-35 on the road, while New York is 70-84 overall and 35-44 at home. The first two completed games of this four-game series were split, with Philadelphia winning 3-0 on September 17 before New York answered with a 6-3 victory on September 18. The Phillies are second in the NL East, five games behind Atlanta, while the Mets are fifth at 20 games back. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Philadelphia is scheduled to start Cristopher Sanchez, who enters at 17-6 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 193.2 innings. Sanchez has allowed 193 hits and 17 home runs while recording an impressive 215 strikeouts against only 44 walks. New York counters with Jonah Tong, who is 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 21 innings. Tong has surrendered 16 hits and two home runs while striking out 20 and walking nine. Tong's early numbers have been solid, but the sample is extremely small compared with Sanchez's body of work. Philadelphia has a major experience and workload advantage in the starting matchup, with Sanchez combining a sub-3.00 ERA with more than 200 strikeouts and excellent walk control across nearly 194 innings.

Phillies Bring the Stronger Overall Profile

Philadelphia enters Sunday at 85-69 overall and has gone 44-35 away from home. The Phillies are 3-2 across their last five completed games, with victories of 9-4, 3-0 and 3-0. Their two losses during that stretch both came by 6-3 scores. Philadelphia has scored 21 runs while allowing 16 across those five games, with the pitching staff holding opponents scoreless in two of the three victories.

The Phillies are batting .241 with 1,244 hits, 687 runs and 179 home runs. They carry a .312 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage. Philadelphia's pitching staff has posted a 3.98 ERA and 1.28 WHIP while opponents are batting .247. The staff has issued only 461 walks while recording 1,492 strikeouts, giving Philadelphia a substantial strikeout advantage over New York.

Philadelphia's biggest edge Sunday comes from combining the stronger overall record with the more established starting-pitching profile. The Phillies don't have a massive offensive statistical advantage, but they have scored 31 more runs than New York while posting slightly better marks in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Their 3.98 team ERA also gives them the better season-long run-prevention number. If Philadelphia can generate even moderate offensive support, its starting matchup provides a strong foundation for controlling the game.

Mets Look to Make Their Home Field Count

New York enters Sunday at 70-84 overall and 35-44 at Citi Field. The Mets have struggled recently, going just 1-4 over their last five completed games. That lone victory was the 6-3 win over Philadelphia on September 18. Before that result, New York had dropped four consecutive games, scoring only seven total runs across those defeats. Overall, the Mets have been outscored 25-13 across their last five.

New York is batting .238 with 1,237 hits, 656 runs and 191 home runs. The Mets own a .309 on-base percentage and .393 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries a 4.16 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, with opponents batting .241. New York has issued 524 walks while collecting 1,377 strikeouts. The Mets have hit 12 more home runs than Philadelphia, giving them one statistical area where they hold a clear offensive advantage.

The concern for New York is turning that power into consistent run production. Despite hitting more home runs, the Mets have scored fewer total runs and trail Philadelphia in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Their recent offensive inconsistency becomes particularly important against Philadelphia's scheduled starter, who combines a 2.93 ERA with 215 strikeouts and only 44 walks. New York may need to capitalize on a limited number of scoring opportunities rather than expecting a steady stream of baserunners.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline

Philadelphia is the preferred side Sunday because the Phillies have advantages in both the season-long team profile and the starting matchup. They enter with 15 more victories than New York, a winning road record and the better team ERA. The largest difference is on the mound, where Philadelphia's scheduled starter has delivered a 17-6 record, 2.93 ERA and 215 strikeouts over 193.2 innings. New York's starter has performed well through 21 innings, but that remains a limited major-league sample. With Philadelphia also scoring more runs and entering 3-2 over its last five completed games compared with New York's 1-4 mark, the Phillies are the moneyline pick.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The Under 8.5 or higher is the preferred total target. Philadelphia has allowed only 16 runs over its last five completed games and recorded two shutouts during that stretch. Its scheduled starter has a 2.93 ERA and has allowed just 17 home runs across nearly 194 innings. New York's starter has also been effective through his limited workload, posting a 3.43 ERA and allowing only 16 hits in 21 innings. The first completed game of this series finished 3-0, and although the second reached nine total runs, the underlying pitching matchup for Sunday points toward a lower-scoring contest. Eight and a half provides enough margin to back the Under, while anything lower would make the wager less attractive.

Final Picks: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.