Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 17, 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets meet Thursday at Citi Field, with the opening pitch scheduled for 7:15 PM ET and the game televised on MLB.TV and FOX. Philadelphia is 83-68, second in the NL East and 5.5 games behind Atlanta, with 11 games remaining. The Phillies currently hold the second NL Wild Card position, one game ahead of San Diego. New York is 69-82, fifth in the NL East and eliminated from playoff contention. The Phillies lost 6-3 to Washington in their most recent game, while the Mets have dropped three straight after a 7-5 extra-inning loss to Baltimore. Let’s break down the matchup with our free MLB picks.

Philadelphia Phillies Trying to Find More Consistent Offense

Philadelphia has lost four of its last five, with the lone victory coming in a 9-4 win at Atlanta. The Phillies are batting .242 with a .311 on-base percentage and .400 slugging percentage, scoring 678 runs with 177 home runs. Kyle Schwarber remains the biggest power threat with 45 homers and 95 RBI. Bryce Harper leads Philadelphia with a .270 average and .384 on-base percentage while adding 28 home runs and 83 RBI.

The Phillies also have several ways to create runs beyond their two biggest bats. Trea Turner has 145 hits, 19 home runs, and 19 stolen bases, while Bryson Stott has stolen 24 bases and driven in 63 runs. Brandon Marsh is batting .264 with 17 homers. Philadelphia ranks 11th in MLB pitching with a 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The staff has recorded 1,460 strikeouts while opponents are batting .247.

Injuries: Caleb Kilian (out), Jesus Luzardo (out), Felix Reyes (out), Johan Rojas (out), Adolis Garcia (out).

New York Mets Trying to Break a Three-Game Slide

New York has lost four of its last five, including three straight heading into Thursday. The Mets were beaten 7-5 in 11 innings by Baltimore after previous losses of 2-1 to the Orioles and 2-0 to the Yankees. New York is batting .238 with a .309 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage. Juan Soto has 25 home runs, 61 RBI and a .917 OPS, while Carson Benge leads the club with a .272 average.

Bo Bichette has been another steady bat, collecting 156 hits with 16 home runs and a team-high 74 RBI. Francisco Lindor has 20 homers in 94 games, and A.J. Ewing has added 23 stolen bases. New York ranks 15th in MLB pitching with a 4.16 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Opponents are batting .241 against the Mets, who have recorded 1,338 strikeouts and surrendered 169 home runs.

Injuries: Cionel Perez (out), Devin Williams (out), Jorge Polanco (out), Reed Garrett (out), Tylor Megill (out).

Pitching Matchup

Philadelphia Phillies - Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola is 6-10 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.37 WHIP across 161.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 166 hits and 55 walks while striking out 165. Home runs have been a concern, with Nola surrendering 34 this season. His strikeout total remains strong, but the combination of hits and long balls has contributed to the elevated ERA.

New York Mets - Nolan McLean

Nolan McLean is 11-9 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 166.2 innings. McLean has allowed only 130 hits while recording 184 strikeouts and issuing 66 walks. The right-hander has surrendered 17 home runs, half Nola’s total, and has limited opponents to fewer than one hit per inning. His strikeout production has also been a major part of a strong season.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Game Pick

• Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia is the pick despite its recent struggles. The Phillies have more at stake in the standings and own stronger season numbers in scoring, batting average and team pitching. Schwarber’s 45 home runs and Harper’s .881 OPS lead a lineup with several proven threats, while Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA compared with New York’s 4.16 mark. McLean presents a difficult matchup, but the Mets have lost three straight and are 34-42 at Citi Field. Philadelphia is the play Thursday night.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Over/Under Pick

• Under

Under is the play with McLean producing a 3.24 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 166.2 innings. He has allowed only 130 hits and 17 home runs, numbers that can make Philadelphia work for scoring chances. The Mets have scored three runs or fewer in three of their last five games, including two runs across consecutive losses before their 7-5 defeat to Baltimore. Nola’s home-run total adds risk, but New York’s recent scoring and McLean’s season numbers favor a lower-scoring outcome.