Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Prediction for Wednesday August 26, 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners close out their three-game series Wednesday afternoon at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET, with coverage on MLB.TV. Philadelphia enters the matchup at 73-59 overall and 35-29 on the road, while Seattle is 63-69 overall with a 36-30 record at home. The Phillies are 3.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East, while the Mariners sit three games back in a tightly packed AL West.

Seattle won Monday's series opener 9-2, ending Philadelphia's four-game winning streak. The Mariners have won three of their last four, while the Phillies had scored at least four runs in four straight games before being held to two in the opener.

At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before making your wagers, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and betting analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Philadelphia is expected to start Jesus Luzardo, who enters Wednesday at 11-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 156 innings. The left-hander has allowed 133 hits while striking out 194 and walking 47, with only 14 home runs surrendered. Luzardo's strikeout production stands out, as he is averaging more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings while maintaining a strong WHIP. Seattle counters with Bryan Woo, who is 9-8 with a 4.10 ERA and an excellent 1.08 WHIP through 138.1 innings. Woo has allowed 121 hits, struck out 137, walked only 29 and surrendered 15 home runs. His ERA is higher than Luzardo's, but his command and ability to limit baserunners give Seattle a legitimate chance to keep this game close.

Philadelphia Looking for a Road Response

Philadelphia comes into Wednesday at 73-59 overall, including a solid 35-29 record away from home. The Phillies had been playing some of their best baseball before Monday's 9-2 loss, winning four consecutive games while scoring 29 runs during that stretch. That run included victories of 4-1, 7-6, 12-3 and 6-4 before Seattle stopped their momentum.

The Phillies are batting .243 as a team with 1,073 hits, 601 runs and 159 home runs. They carry a .313 on-base percentage and .403 slugging percentage, giving them the offensive advantage over Seattle in nearly every major category provided. Philadelphia has scored 79 more runs this season despite hitting only five more home runs, illustrating its greater ability to turn baserunners into production.

Pitching has been slightly less consistent at the team level. Philadelphia owns a 4.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while opponents are batting .251. However, Wednesday's matchup gives the Phillies one of their stronger weapons on the mound, and their 1,302 team strikeouts demonstrate the staff's ability to miss bats.

Seattle Has Been Better at T-Mobile Park

Seattle's 63-69 overall record does not tell the entire story heading into this matchup. The Mariners are 36-30 at T-Mobile Park, meaning they have been substantially more competitive at home. They have also won three of their last four games, beating Chicago 6-5 and 5-4 before responding to a 19-2 defeat with Monday's convincing 9-2 victory over Philadelphia.

Seattle is hitting .230 with 1,005 hits, 522 runs and 154 home runs. The Mariners own a .310 on-base percentage and .378 slugging percentage. Those offensive numbers trail Philadelphia, particularly in batting average and slugging, and Seattle has scored 79 fewer runs despite having nearly the same number of home runs.

The Mariners have been slightly better from a pitching perspective, posting a 4.11 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while opponents are batting .249. Their biggest strength Wednesday may be Woo's control. His 29 walks in 138.1 innings have helped produce an excellent 1.08 WHIP, and that ability to avoid giving Philadelphia free baserunners could keep Seattle competitive deep into the afternoon.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Prediction

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline

Philadelphia gets the side pick despite Seattle's strong home record and Monday's convincing victory. The biggest reason is the combination of the Phillies' superior season-long offense and the advantage Luzardo provides on the mound. Philadelphia has scored 601 runs compared with Seattle's 522, owns the better batting average and slugging percentage, and enters with the substantially better overall record. Woo's 1.08 WHIP makes this far from an easy matchup, but Luzardo's 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 194 strikeouts provide Philadelphia with the kind of starter capable of neutralizing a Seattle offense batting only .230. Take the Phillies on the moneyline.

Pick: Under 8.0

If the total is set at 8.0, the under is the preferred play. Luzardo and Woo have combined to allow only 29 home runs over 294.1 innings, while both have kept their WHIPs at 1.15 or lower. Woo's command should reduce Philadelphia's opportunities for easy rallies, while Luzardo's strikeout ability matches up well with a Seattle offense that has produced only 522 runs in 132 games. Monday's 11-run result creates some concern, but Wednesday presents a considerably stronger starting-pitching setup. Take the under if the total is set at 8.0 or higher.

This preview was completed prior to game play on Tuesday. Any lineup changes, pitching changes, injuries, scratches, or betting-line movement occurring after that time are not reflected in this analysis.