Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Monday August 10 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies open a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri, on Monday, August 10, 2026. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET, with FS1, MLB.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia, and Cardinals.TV providing television coverage. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Baseball bettors can find more analysis throughout the season by visiting our free MLB picks.

Philadelphia enters with the stronger overall and road records, but the anticipated starting-pitching matchup favors St. Louis. The Phillies have also lost two consecutive games, while the Cardinals have won three of their five most recently supplied contests. This will be the first meeting of the season between these National League clubs.

Starting Pitchers

Andrew Painter is listed as Philadelphia’s probable starter opposite St. Louis right-hander Hunter Dobbins. Painter is 1-8 with a 6.48 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP through 75 innings, allowing 90 hits and 15 home runs while recording 63 strikeouts against 28 walks. He is listed as day-to-day, so his status should be monitored before placing a wager. Dobbins is 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP across 40 innings. He has allowed 38 hits and six home runs with 36 strikeouts and 14 walks. Dobbins holds sizable advantages in ERA and WHIP, although his smaller workload makes the comparison less definitive.

Philadelphia Looks to End Its Two-Game Slide

The Phillies enter Monday at 62-56 overall with a 31-26 record away from home. Philadelphia went 2-3 across its five most recently supplied games, defeating Washington 5-0 and 7-3 but losing twice to Toronto. Two of the Phillies’ three defeats required 11 innings, showing how close they came to producing a stronger recent record.

Philadelphia is batting .238 with 521 runs, 939 hits, and 147 home runs. The Phillies own a .307 on-base percentage and a .401 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has registered a 4.20 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while recording 1,153 strikeouts against 358 walks. Opponents are batting .251 against Philadelphia pitching.

Power is Philadelphia’s clearest offensive advantage in this matchup. The Phillies have hit 27 more home runs than St. Louis and own a 22-point advantage in slugging percentage. However, Painter’s season numbers are a major concern. His 6.48 ERA and 1.57 WHIP could place immediate pressure on the offense, especially if his day-to-day issue affects his effectiveness or availability.

St. Louis Seeks an Advantage at Busch Stadium

The Cardinals enter the series at 58-59 overall and 29-33 at home. St. Louis went 3-2 across its five most recently supplied games, taking two of three from the Yankees before splitting its first two games against Colorado. The Cardinals scored 25 runs during that span, although 13 came in one victory.

St. Louis owns a .239 team batting average with 508 runs, 938 hits, and 120 home runs. The Cardinals have produced a .315 on-base percentage and a .379 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries a 4.14 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP with 895 strikeouts and 393 walks while allowing opponents to bat .253.

The Cardinals’ ability to reach base could be important against Painter. Their .315 on-base percentage exceeds Philadelphia’s .307 mark, while Painter has allowed 118 combined hits and walks in 75 innings. St. Louis has struggled to generate the same power as Philadelphia, but sustained traffic on the bases could allow the home team to create scoring opportunities without relying exclusively on home runs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction

• Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline

St. Louis is the preferred side because of the expected starting-pitching advantage. Dobbins enters with an ERA nearly three runs lower than Painter’s and has produced the better WHIP. Painter has allowed 90 hits and 15 home runs in 75 innings, creating a difficult matchup against a Cardinals lineup that has recently shown an ability to produce timely offense.

Philadelphia is the stronger team overall and has played better on the road than St. Louis has at home. Those factors should prevent bettors from laying a steep price with the Cardinals. Nevertheless, the starting-pitching disparity and Painter’s day-to-day designation make St. Louis the more attractive selection if the moneyline remains close to even.

• Pick: Over 8.5

Take the over if the total is set at 8.5. Painter’s 6.48 ERA and 1.57 WHIP give St. Louis a strong opportunity to score during the early innings. The Phillies also bring meaningful power, having hit 147 home runs with a .401 slugging percentage.

Dobbins has pitched effectively, but his 40-inning sample remains limited, and Philadelphia has scored at least four runs in each of its five most recently supplied games. With temperatures expected to be in the 90s and both offenses possessing a realistic path to four or more runs, the over is the preferred total.

Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals 6, Philadelphia Phillies 4

This preview was written prior to game play on Sunday.