Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 27, 2025

In our Pirates vs. Braves prediction, the Pittsburgh Pirates are fifth in the NL Central with a 69-90 record so far. They are having young right-hander Bubba Chandler get the start as he is coming off a win against the Athletics, where he pitched 5.0 shutout innings and allowed one hit with zero walks and six strikeouts.

The Atlanta Braves are sitting in fourth place in the NL East with a 75-84 record entering this game. Young right-hander Spencer Strider takes the ball and is coming off a win over the Detroit Tigers, where he threw five shutout innings and gave up six hits with three walks and six strikeouts.

First pitch focus — MLB picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves that cut through the noise

Pirates Looking Towards the Future

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a terrible offensive team as they are 30th in the sport with a .653 team OPS while averaging 3.56 runs per game. Pittsburgh has been doing well in terms of being patient at the plate, as they are 11th in the bigs with 520 total walks drawn. Right fielder Bryan Reynolds has been hitting at a respectable level as he has a .720 OPS with 16 home runs, 73 RBI, 67 runs scored, and three steals while being caught two times.

Bubba Chandler is the second-ranked prospect in the Pittsburgh system and has not pitched enough to factor into the percentile rankings on Baseball Savant. He has a 91.5 MPH average exit velocity, 33.0 chase percentage, 3.9 walk percentage, and 24.3 strikeout percentage. He has a four-pitch arsenal (fastball, changeup, slider, curveball) and his fastball has been getting hit as hitters have a .327 batting average and .538 slugging percentage with two home runs and 13+ strikeouts against it. Chandler is facing the Braves for the first time in his young career.

Injury Report for Pittsburgh

• Center Oneil Cruz: Ankle (Questionable)
• Second baseman Ronny Simon: Shoulder (OUT)
• First baseman Endy Rodriguez: Elbow (OUT)
• First baseman Enmanuel Valdez: Shoulder (OUT)
• Pitcher Jared Jones: Elbow (OUT)

Braves Looking to End Tough Season

The Atlanta Braves are doing a decent job at the plate as they are 13th in MLB with a .721 team OPS while scoring 4.48 runs per game. The team has been able to hit for power as they are 11th in the majors with 188 homers as a team thus far. Center fielder Michael Harris II has been struggling at the plate as he is posting a .246/.366/.387 slash line with 19 home runs, 85 RBI, 54 runs scored, and 20 steals while being caught six times.

Spencer Strider is pitching poorly this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity, 11th percentile in barrel percentage, 14th percentile in xERA, and 23rd percentile in walk percentage. He has four different pitches (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup) and his curveball has been his best pitch as hitters have a .107 batting average and .286 slugging percentage with one home run and 14 strikeouts against it. Strider faced the Pirates once back in 2023 in a losing effort as he gave up six runs on five hits with three walks and three strikeouts in 2.2 innings.

Injury Report for Atlanta

• Third baseman Vidl Brujan: Hip (Questionable)
• Second baseman Ozzie Albies: Arm (OUT)
• Pitcher Daysbel Hernandez: Shoulder (OUT)
• Pitcher Aaron Bummer: Shoulder (OUT)
• Right fielder Jake Fraley: Oblique (OUT)
• Catcher Sean Murphy: Hip (OUT)
• Third baseman Austin Riley: Abdominal (OUT)
• Pitcher Grant Holmes: Elbow (OUT)
• Pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach: Elbow (OUT)
• Pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver: Calf/Elbow (OUT)
• Pitcher Reynaldo Lopez: Shoulder (OUT)
• Pitcher Joe Jimenez: Knee (OUT)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Pick

Spread Pick for Pirates vs. Braves

• Atlanta Braves ML (4 units)

During September, these starting pitchers are on completely different levels in their production. Bubba Chandler is 2-2 with a 6.62 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 17.2 innings (four games, three starts), while Spencer Strider is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA and a .250 opposing batting average in 23.0 innings (four starts) right now. The offenses are on complete opposite sides of the spectrum as Atlanta is averaging six runs per game while Pittsburgh is scoring 3.54 runs per game in the previous 15 days. The Braves are 4-3 in their previous seven games against the Pirates, so go with the Atlanta Braves to win this matchup as well.

Over/Under Pick for Pirates vs. Braves

• OVER (5 units)

Both bullpens are struggling this season as the Pirates are 13th in the sport with a 3.86 reliever ERA, while the Braves are 19th in the bigs with a 4.21 bullpen ERA up to this point. During the last seven days, these have been two of the best offensive teams in the sport as Atlanta is second with a .876 team OPS while Pittsburgh is sitting in ninth place with a. 724 team OPS in that stretch of action. All in all, go with the OVER as the better bet for this game.