Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 28, 2025
Use Code SSWC In our Pirates vs. Braves prediction, the Pittsburgh Pirates are last in the NL Central with a 70-90 record so far. They are having right-hander Johan Oviedo get the start as he is coming off a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds, where he pitched 4.2 innings and allowed two runs on two hits with three walks and seven strikeouts.
The Atlanta Braves are struggling as they are sitting in fourth place in the NL East with a 75-85 record entering this game. Veteran right-hander Charlie Morton takes the ball and is making his first start of the year with the Atlanta Braves after being released by the Detroit Tigers. He faced the Braves in a loss as he pitched 1.1 innings and gave up six runs on five hits with one hit by pitch, two walks, and two strikeouts.
First pitch focus — MLB picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves that cut through the noise
WRITTEN BEFORE SATURDAY’S GAME
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Pirates Ready for the Season to Conclude
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a terrible offensive team as they are 30th in the sport with a .656 team OPS while averaging 3.62 runs per game. Pittsburgh has been patient at the plate as their 523 total walks places them in 11th place this season. Designated hitter Andrew McCutchen has been hitting at a lesser level as he has a .699 OPS with 13 home runs, 57 RBI, 51 runs scored, and one steal while being caught once.
Johan Oviedo has not pitched enough during the season to factor into the percentile rankings as he has a 6.7 barrel percentage, 37.1 hard hit percentage, .209 xBA, and 23.2 chase percentage. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, curveball, sinker, changeup) and his curveball has been his best pitch as hitters have a .182 batting average and .318 slugging percentage with one home run and eight strikeouts against it. Oviedo faced the Braves once back in the 2023 season as he did not factor into the decision, as he pitched 3.2 innings and gave up three runs on nine hits with one hit by pitch, one walk, and four strikeouts.
Injury Report for Pittsburgh
- Center Oneil Cruz: Ankle (Questionable)
- Second baseman Ronny Simon: Shoulder (OUT)
- First baseman Endy Rodriguez: Elbow (OUT)
- First baseman Enmanuel Valdez: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Jared Jones: Elbow (OUT)
Braves Ready for 2025 Offseason
The Atlanta Braves are doing a good job at the plate as they are 13th in MLB with a .721 team OPS while scoring 4.49 runs per game. The team has shown the ability to hit for power as they are tied with the Baltimore Orioles for 11th place, having hit 189 combined home runs this season. First baseman Matt Olson has been swinging the bat well as he is posting a .272/.365/.484 slash line with 29 home runs, 94 RBI, 96 runs scored, and a 90:175 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
Charlie Morton is pitching poorly this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity, 11th percentile in walk percentage, 21st percentile in xERA, and 22nd percentile in hard hit percentage. He has five different pitches (curveball, fastball, sinker, changeup, cutter) and his changeup has been getting hit as hitters have a .373 batting average and a .559 slugging percentage with two home runs and eight strikeouts. Morton faced the Pirates once last season in a win as he pitched 6.1 shutout innings, giving up three hits with one hit by pitch, one walk, and seven strikeouts.
Injury Report for Atlanta
- Third baseman Vidl Brujan: Hip (Questionable)
- Second baseman Ozzie Albies: Arm (OUT)
- Pitcher Daysbel Hernandez: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Aaron Bummer: Shoulder (OUT)
- Right fielder Jake Fraley: Oblique (OUT)
- Catcher Sean Murphy: Hip (OUT)
- Third baseman Austin Riley: Abdominal (OUT)
- Pitcher Grant Holmes: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver: Calf/Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Reynaldo Lopez: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Joe Jimenez: Knee (OUT)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Pick
Spread Pick for Pirates vs. Braves
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML (4 units)
When diving into the previous seven starts for these pitchers, there is a significant difference as Johan Oviedo is 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 34.1 innings while Charlie Morton is 2-1 with a 7.45 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP in 29.0 innings before being signed by the Braves. During September, these pitching staffs are on completely different levels as the Pirates are second in the sport with a 3.15 team ERA while the Braves are down at 22nd with a 4.42 team ERA in the calendar month. The Pirates have won four of the previous five games against the Braves, so go with the Pittsburgh Pirates to record a win here.
Over/Under Pick for Pirates vs. Braves
- UNDER (5 units)
When diving into the ability to hit with runners in scoring position, these teams are not doing too well as the Pirates are 30th with a .670 team OPS with runners in scoring position, while the Braves are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Boston Red Sox for 15th with a .751 team OPS in the situations. Neither team has shown the ability to hit home runs consistently as Pittsburgh is 30th with 45.77 at-bats per home run, while Atlanta is 13th with 28.82 at-bats per home run this season. The under is the better bet so go with the UNDER to hit once again in this matchup to end the regular season.
Never Tried Picks and Parlays? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code BUCK
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
