Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Friday September 11 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs open a three-game NL Central series on Friday, September 11, 2026, at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh enters the matchup at 73-73 overall and 35-39 on the road, while Chicago is 81-66 overall and 41-31 at home. The season series is tied 5-5, adding another layer to an important divisional matchup. Pittsburgh has won three straight games while Chicago has dropped four in a row. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Pittsburgh is scheduled to start Braxton Ashcraft, who enters at 14-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 165.1 innings. He has allowed 145 hits and 35 walks while striking out 173 and surrendering 22 home runs. Chicago counters with Shota Imanaga, who is 9-10 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 156.1 innings. He has allowed 140 hits and 35 walks while recording 152 strikeouts and allowing 33 home runs. Pittsburgh owns the slight statistical starting-pitching advantage, particularly in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and home-run prevention.

Pirates Carry Momentum Into Wrigley Field

Pittsburgh enters Friday at an even 73-73 overall and is 35-39 away from home. The Pirates have won four of their last five games and three straight, including consecutive road victories over the White Sox by scores of 9-3 and 4-2. Pittsburgh also recorded a pair of 1-0 victories during its recent home series, with its only loss over the last five coming by a 6-1 score. The Pirates are playing their best baseball of this recent stretch as they head across Chicago for another divisional series.

The Pirates are batting .254 with 707 runs, 1,273 hits and 167 home runs. Pittsburgh owns a .331 on-base percentage and .403 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, the Pirates carry a 4.15 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while holding opponents to a .237 batting average. They have issued 530 walks while recording 1,346 strikeouts. Pittsburgh has also been particularly effective in day games, producing a 37-24 record in that setting.

The biggest advantage for Pittsburgh entering this matchup may be the combination of current momentum and its ability to limit opposing batting production. The Pirates have the slightly better team ERA and a significantly lower opponent batting average than Chicago. They have also won four of five while the Cubs have lost four straight. Pittsburgh does not possess Chicago's overall power numbers, but the Pirates have been competitive throughout the season series, which is tied 5-5 through ten meetings.

Cubs Look to Stop Four-Game Slide at Home

Chicago enters Friday at 81-66 overall and remains in second place in the NL Central. The Cubs have been much better at Wrigley Field, where they own a 41-31 record, but their recent form has gone in the opposite direction. Chicago has lost four consecutive games, including three straight against Milwaukee by scores of 4-3, 4-3 in ten innings and 8-6. The Cubs' other recent defeat was a 10-3 loss, while their lone victory over the last five came by a 6-5 score.

The Cubs are batting .251 with 780 runs, 1,267 hits and 203 home runs. Chicago has posted a .339 on-base percentage and .429 slugging percentage, giving it the better overall offensive profile in this matchup. The pitching staff owns a 4.22 ERA and 1.27 WHIP while opponents are batting .245. Chicago has issued 449 walks and recorded 1,142 strikeouts. The Cubs have also gone 31-31 in day games, which stands in contrast to Pittsburgh's stronger 37-24 daytime record.

Chicago's clearest advantage is its power and overall run production. The Cubs have scored 73 more runs than Pittsburgh and hit 36 more home runs while also owning the superior on-base and slugging percentages. The concern is whether that offense can overcome its current four-game losing streak and a pitching matchup that slightly favors Pittsburgh statistically. Chicago has the better season record and home-field advantage, but its recent form makes this a much tighter matchup than those records alone would suggest.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

The Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline is the preferred side in Friday's matchup. Chicago owns the better overall record and home mark, but Pittsburgh enters with four wins in its last five games while the Cubs have lost four straight. The Pirates also have the slight starting-pitching advantage based on the supplied numbers, along with the better team ERA and opponent batting average. Pittsburgh's 37-24 record in day games is another encouraging indicator. With the season series tied 5-5, taking the hotter team rather than automatically siding with Chicago at Wrigley Field offers the better betting angle.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the Under if the total is set at 8.5 or higher. Pittsburgh has allowed just nine combined runs over its last five games, including two shutouts, while its scheduled starter enters with a 3.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Chicago's scheduled starter has also posted respectable numbers with a 3.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The Cubs possess enough power to make an Under uncomfortable, but their recent offensive production has been inconsistent during the four-game losing streak. With two capable starters and Pittsburgh pitching well recently, 8.5 provides a playable number for the Under.

Final Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline and Under 8.5

This preview was completed before play on Thursday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.