Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 31, 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Friday, July 31, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh enters with a 55-54 overall record and a 26-26 road mark, while Cincinnati is 50-57 overall and 23-30 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before wagering on Friday’s complete schedule.

Starting Pitchers for Pirates vs Reds

Paul Skenes is scheduled to start for Pittsburgh against Cincinnati right-hander Hunter Greene. Skenes enters with a 9-9 record, a 3.65 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP through 120.2 innings. He has allowed 100 hits, 28 walks and 11 home runs while recording 149 strikeouts. Greene has a 2-2 record with a 7.06 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP across 21.2 innings. He has surrendered 22 hits, seven walks and three home runs while collecting 29 strikeouts. The Pittsburgh starter has worked considerably more innings while entering with the lower ERA and WHIP.

Pittsburgh Looks to Turn Its Offensive Edge Into a Road Win

Pittsburgh enters Friday’s matchup one game above .500 at 55-54 and has split its 52 road games. The Pirates have won two of their last five contests, recently earning an 8-7 victory over Chicago and a 3-2 win over Arizona in 10 innings. They recently lost to Arizona 3-0 and 8-7 in 12 innings, along with an 11-0 defeat against Chicago. Three of Pittsburgh’s last four games have been decided by one run, with two requiring extra innings.

The Pirates are batting .260 with 563 runs, 985 hits and 137 home runs. They have produced a .336 on-base percentage and a .420 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff owns a 4.28 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while issuing 386 walks and recording 1,004 strikeouts. Opposing batters are hitting .241 against the Pirates, who have also compiled a 30-18 record in day games.

Pittsburgh’s primary strength is the considerable advantage offered by its offense. The Pirates hold the better batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage while producing 123 more runs and 164 more hits than Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has hit two fewer home runs, but its overall offensive profile is substantially stronger. The Pirates have also recorded 148 more strikeouts on the pitching side and enter with the lower team ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average.

Cincinnati Returns Home Searching for More Consistent Production

Cincinnati comes into the series opener with a 50-57 overall record and a 23-30 record at Great American Ball Park. The Reds have won two of their last five games, recently defeating Cleveland 2-0 and earning a 5-3 victory over St. Louis in 10 innings. Cincinnati recently lost to Cleveland by scores of 6-1 and 6-5 and was shut out 7-0 by St. Louis. Two of the Reds’ last five games required extra innings or were decided by one run.

The Reds are batting .229 with 440 runs, 821 hits and 139 home runs. Cincinnati carries a .307 on-base percentage and a .395 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff has recorded a 4.43 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP while allowing 460 walks and collecting 856 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .246 against the Reds, who own a 23-21 record in day games.

Cincinnati’s biggest concern is its offensive production compared with Pittsburgh. The Reds trail the Pirates by 31 points in batting average, 29 points in on-base percentage and 25 points in slugging percentage. Cincinnati has scored 123 fewer runs despite holding a narrow 139-137 advantage in home runs. The Reds also enter with the higher staff ERA and WHIP, while their pitchers have issued 74 more walks and recorded 148 fewer strikeouts than Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction

Pittsburgh holds the better overall record and carries advantages throughout most of the supplied team statistics. The Pirates are 55-54 compared with Cincinnati’s 50-57 mark, and the matchup predictor gives Pittsburgh a 61.3% probability of winning. Cincinnati receives a 38.7% chance at home.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Pick

• Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

Pittsburgh is the moneyline selection. The Pirates have the better overall record, while their 26-26 road mark compares favorably with Cincinnati’s 23-30 home record. Pittsburgh also has the stronger starting pitching numbers and holds clear advantages in batting average, runs, hits, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The Pirates’ pitching staff has the lower ERA and WHIP, and the 61.3% matchup predictor provides additional support for the visitors.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Total Pick

• Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Pittsburgh’s scheduled starter enters with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP across 120.2 innings, while Cincinnati has scored only 440 runs and is batting .229. The Reds have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last five games, including two shutout losses. I expect Pittsburgh to hold the stronger scoring opportunity, but Cincinnati’s recent offensive results make the under my preferred total.

Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 5 – Cincinnati Reds 2

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.