Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Picks for Thursday, September 25th, 2025
The MLB action continues on Thursday with a pivotal matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates (69-89) and the Cincinnati Reds (80-78), and we’ve got you covered with our Pirates vs. Reds prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 12:40 ET from the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Pirates in the Cellar of the Central
The Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t have high expectations entering 2025, and they’ve lived up to the lowly projections as they’re just 69-89 and sit in the cellar of the National League Central. Pittsburgh is the third-worst team in the N.L., where only the Nationals (65-94) and Rockies (43-114) are worse. The big issue with the organization is their unwillingness to surround their young core with capable veterans, which is exemplified by the fact that the Buccos are 27th in payroll this year ($84.4 million). With all of that being said, the Pirates are on a solid 4-0 run, which includes two consecutive wins in this series against the Reds (4-2, 4-3).
It took 11 innings to secure the spoiler victory over the competing Reds on Wednesday, and it was Yohan Ramirez (1.1 IP, 0 ER) who ultimately collected the win in relief. Spencer Horwitz drove in the game-winning run with a double in the 10th, capping off a huge 3-for-5 day with three RBI.
- Braxton Ashcraft gets the nod for the Pirates on Thursday, and the 25-year-old has been excellent in 25 appearances (65.1 IP) and seven starts this year.
- The right-hander is 4-3 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
- Ashcraft last pitched on Saturday against the Athletics, where he tossed 3.0 perfect innings in relief.
- He racked up six strikeouts and earned a hold in the 2-0 win over the A’s.
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Reds Competing in the Wild Card
As for the Cincinnati Reds, they brought in a veteran manager in Terry Francona to try and get the team over the hump into the playoffs in 2025. The Reds are 80-78 so far this season, which puts them 15.5 games out of the divisional race and just 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot. Cincinnati had won five consecutive games entering the new week, but they dropped the two opening contests against Pittsburgh (4-2, 4-3) in their midweek series. They’re now sitting at +1200 to make the playoffs.
Hunter Greene (6.0 IP, 2 ER) was sharp in his start on Wednesday, but ultimately took a no-decision in the 4-3 extra-innings defeat. The loss fell on Nick Martinez (1.0 IP, 0 ER), who allowed the go-ahead “ghost runner” to score in the 11th. Offensively, both Noelvi Marte and Tyler Stephenson homered in the losing effort.
- Nick Lodolo will oppose Ashcraft on Thursday, and the 27-year-old has been serviceable for the Reds in 27 starts (149.1 IP) this season.
- The southpaw enters the matinee bout at 8-8 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
- Most recently, Lodolo faced the Cubs and gave up four earned runs on nine hits and two walks over 4.2 innings.
- It was a no-decision effort in a game that the Reds eventually won 7-4.
Pirates vs. Reds Pick
Moneyline Pick for Pirates vs. Reds
- Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (+140) (5 units)
The Reds should be favored in this matchup, but I am not willing to lay the -165 moneyline price tag that comes with Cincinnati to prevail. The Pirates, who have won four straight games, are live to win this game. I’m going to take a flier on them with this nice +140 underdog payout.
Cincinnati is turning to Nick Lodolo, and the southpaw hasn’t been very good recently. He has allowed nine earned runs and 17 hits in his last two starts (10.0 IP), which translates to an 8.10 ERA and a 15.3 H/9 rate. The left-hander draws a matchup against a Pirates squad that has been crushing the ball recently. Over the last seven days, Pittsburgh is seventh in wOBA (.339) and ninth in ISO (.174). With Braxton Ashcraft (2.62 ERA) going for the Buccos and their offense playing well, I’ll gladly take a +140 shot on the underdogs on Thursday.
Over/Under Pick for Pirates vs. Reds
- Under 8.0 (-105) (5 units)
While Nick Lodolo hasn’t been great recently, I do think he’ll pitch well enough to keep this final score under the total. The left-hander has thrown well against the Pirates in the past, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .220/.292/.322 over 59 at-bats. As for Braxton Ashcraft, he has held the Reds to a slash line of .231/.286/.231 in 13 head-to-head at-bats. The right-hander brings in an excellent 2.62 ERA this year, and he has only allowed five runs in his last 21.2 innings (2.08 ERA).
Both of these bullpens have been solid in the last two weeks as well. Over the last 14 days, the Pirates are second in relief ERA (1.71) and 12th in WHIP (1.14), while the Reds are 11th (2.87) and fifth (1.04), respectively. I’m taking the under.
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