Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Picks - Wednesday, September 24, 2025
Paul Skenes and Pittsburgh stand in Cincinnati's way on Wednesday as the Reds look to take a step closer to the playoffs. Find out more about this matchup with our Pirates vs. Reds prediction and picks. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm ET at the Reds' Great American Ball Park home.
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Pirates finish another forgettable year
Not even a potential Cy Young for Paul Skenes can gloss over what has been another awful season for Pittsburgh (68-89). The Pirates were eliminated from playoff contention back in September 15, the 10th straight season without October baseball. They sit at the bottom of the NL Central, 28.0 games behind division champions Milwaukee, while only Colorado and Washington have put up worse records in the NL than the underwhelming Bucs.
Skenes is on the mound Wednesday for his final start of 2025. The ace's first full season in MLB has been an unqualified success, as he has put up a league-leading 2.03 ERA across 31 starts. Skenes also leads MLB in WHIP at 0.96, while his 209 strikeouts ranks fourth among starters. Batters are hitting just .199 against him in 2025. But he has been hampered by a chronic lack of run support, the main reason behind his modest-looking 10-10 W/L record.
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Reds dreaming of Wild Card
The Cincinnati Reds (80-77) have made the unlikeliest of late surges to push into the NL Wild Card positions. The Reds season looked as good as over at the start of last week, but they responded by winning six out of seven against the Cardinals and Cubs to push ahead of the Mets in the final playoff spot, though Tuesday's 4-2 loss to the Pirates was a blow to their chances. Superior pitching has been the key to success; Reds pitchers have worked to an NL-best 2.00 ERA over the last week and shut out the Cubs twice during the weekend's four-game sweep.
The Reds will call on Hunter Greene for Wednesday's must-win game. Greene was exceptional last time out, recording the second complete game shutout of his career as he shackled the Cubs. The righty took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and finished with one hit and a walk against him having struck out nine Cubs batters. Greene has gone 7-4 this year with a 2.74 ERA, though two groin strains have restricted him to 18 starts.
Royals vs. Angels pick
Spread Pick for Royals vs. Angels
- Pirates +1.5 (4 units)
While it is tough to take the Pirates outright given Cincinnati's need for a win, I have no hesitation in backing them to cover the runline as underdog with Skenes on the mound. The Pirates have either won or finished within a single run in five of Skenes' last six starts. He has also never lost a game to the Reds in his short career, going a perfect 4-0 in four starts to date. Pittsburgh is 6-5 on the runline this year, facing the Reds.
Take the Pirates on the runline.
Over/under Pick for Pirates vs. Reds
- Under (5 units)
This one looks like a pitchers' duel all the way. Greene is coming off the best start of his career and his 2.74 ERA would rank eighth among MLB starters this year had injuries not prevented him from reaching the innings required to qualify. Skenes' own talents barely need to be mentioned, and he also has an incredible 0.39 ERA against the Reds in four career starts. The Reds have gone 26-43-8 on the over at home this year. The Pirates have had the worst offense in pro baseball this season, averaging just 3.60 runs per game.
Take the under.
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