Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Prediction for Friday September 25 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan, on Friday, September 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh enters at 80-78 overall and 37-41 on the road, while Detroit is 74-85 overall and 40-38 at home. The Pirates sit third in the NL Central and have already secured the season-series advantage over Detroit by winning two of the first three meetings. Pittsburgh has also won four of its last five games despite dropping Wednesday's contest 5-1. Detroit has struggled badly down the stretch, losing four of its last five and scoring two runs or fewer in each of those four defeats. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Pittsburgh is scheduled to start Bubba Chandler, who enters at 8-9 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 151.1 innings. He has allowed 132 hits and 15 home runs while recording 138 strikeouts against 76 walks. Detroit counters with Jackson Jobe, who is 2-3 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through 40.2 innings. He has surrendered 35 hits and seven home runs while striking out 43 and walking only 14. Jobe owns the better ERA and WHIP and has displayed substantially better control, but his workload is much smaller. Chandler's 76 walks are the biggest concern for Pittsburgh, although allowing only 15 home runs across more than 150 innings gives him a chance to limit major damage if he can avoid putting additional runners on base.

Pittsburgh Brings the Better Recent Form

Pittsburgh enters the series at 80-78 and has guaranteed itself at least a .500 season with four games remaining. The Pirates have also been playing some of their better baseball recently, winning four of their last five. They swept three games from Kansas City by scores of 8-5, 6-5 and 4-3 before shutting out St. Louis 2-0. Wednesday's 5-1 loss to the Cardinals ended the four-game winning streak, but Pittsburgh has still outscored its opponents 21-18 over its last five games. The concern is that the Pirates have been less effective away from home, carrying a 37-41 road record into Detroit.

The season statistics favor Pittsburgh offensively. The Pirates are batting .254 with 751 runs, 1,374 hits and 182 home runs while producing a .330 on-base percentage and .405 slugging percentage. Detroit is below Pittsburgh in every one of those categories. Pittsburgh's pitching staff owns a 4.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .237. The Pirates have issued 569 walks and recorded 1,453 strikeouts, giving them a substantial strikeout advantage over Detroit despite the Tigers owning the stronger overall run-prevention numbers.

Pittsburgh's most important advantage is its ability to generate more consistent offense. The Pirates have scored 42 more runs than Detroit while batting 13 points higher and reaching base at a better rate. They have also scored at least four runs in four of their last five games. The starting pitching matchup presents some risk because Chandler has struggled with walks and Jobe owns the better ERA and WHIP, but Pittsburgh's combination of recent form, offensive production and season-series success gives the Pirates several ways to compensate.

Detroit's Pitching Gives the Tigers a Chance

Detroit enters Friday at 74-85 and sits fourth in the AL Central, 8.5 games behind Cleveland. The Tigers have gone just 1-4 over their last five games, with the lone victory coming in a 9-2 win over Washington. Their four losses came by scores of 3-1, 8-1, 3-1 and 4-2. That means Detroit has scored only five combined runs across its four recent defeats. The Tigers do return to Comerica Park with a 40-38 home record, giving them a significantly better winning percentage at home than their overall .465 mark.

Detroit is batting .241 with 709 runs, 1,292 hits and 177 home runs. The Tigers own a .320 on-base percentage and .400 slugging percentage. While those offensive numbers trail Pittsburgh, Detroit has a clear advantage on the mound. The Tigers carry a 3.65 team ERA and 1.22 WHIP compared with Pittsburgh's 4.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Opponents are hitting only .232 against Detroit pitching, and the staff has issued 499 walks while recording 1,280 strikeouts.

The Tigers' path to winning this game starts with preventing Pittsburgh's offense from taking control early. Detroit has the superior team ERA and WHIP, and Jobe enters with a 3.98 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and only 14 walks through 40.2 innings. The problem is an offense that has repeatedly failed to provide enough support. Detroit has been held to one or two runs in four of its last five games, and Pittsburgh has already won two of the first three meetings this season. Unless the Tigers can reverse that offensive trend, their pitching staff has very little margin for error.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Prediction

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

Pittsburgh gets the side selection despite Detroit holding the statistical advantage in both the starting pitching matchup and overall team pitching. The Pirates have won four of their last five games and are 80-78 overall, while Detroit has dropped four of five and sits 11 games below .500. Pittsburgh also owns the better offensive numbers across the board, including advantages in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Detroit's 3.65 team ERA and Jobe's 3.98 ERA make this far from an automatic matchup, particularly with Pittsburgh playing below .500 on the road. However, Detroit's inability to consistently generate offense is difficult to overlook. Pittsburgh has already taken two of three from the Tigers this season and enters in considerably better recent form, making the Pirates moneyline the preferred side if the price is reasonable.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The under is the preferred total direction if the market posts 8.5 or higher. Detroit's last five games have produced combined totals of six, four, 11, nine and four runs, with three finishing comfortably below 8.5. The Tigers have scored only five runs across their four losses during that stretch, while Pittsburgh has shown it can win lower-scoring games, including its recent 2-0 victory over St. Louis. Detroit's 3.65 team ERA and 1.22 WHIP provide the strongest statistical foundation for the under, and Jobe has allowed only 35 hits through 40.2 innings. Chandler's walk rate introduces volatility on the Pittsburgh side, but he has surrendered only 15 home runs in 151.1 innings. With Detroit struggling to score and its pitching staff remaining the team's biggest strength, 8.5 provides enough cushion to favor the under.

Final Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.