Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 26 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan, on Saturday, September 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh enters the weekend at 81-78 overall and 37-41 on the road, while Detroit is 74-85 overall and 40-38 at home. The Pirates sit third in the NL Central and have won four of their last five completed games, while Detroit is fourth in the AL Central and has dropped four of its last five. Pittsburgh leads the completed season series 2-1 after taking two of three in August. Friday's series opener had not been completed at the time of this preview and is therefore excluded from the analysis. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Pittsburgh is scheduled to start Lake Bachar, who enters at 1-4 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 85 innings. He has allowed only 61 hits and 13 home runs while recording 89 strikeouts against 36 walks. Detroit is scheduled to counter with Justin Verlander, who enters at 0-1 with a 12.27 ERA and 2.18 WHIP, although those numbers come from only 3.2 innings. He has surrendered six hits and one home run while recording one strikeout against two walks. Pittsburgh owns the much more stable starting-pitching profile entering Saturday. Bachar has a substantial workload behind his numbers and has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, while Detroit's starter has such a limited 2026 sample that his current ERA and WHIP must be viewed cautiously.

Pittsburgh Has Been Finishing the Season Strong

Pittsburgh enters the weekend at 81-78 overall and has secured a winning season despite sitting 19 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central. The Pirates have also been playing some of their better baseball recently. They defeated St. Louis 2-1 on Thursday after losing 5-1 the previous night, and they had previously recorded victories of 2-0 over St. Louis and 4-3 and 6-5 over Kansas City. Pittsburgh is therefore 4-1 across its last five completed games, with three of those victories coming by a single run.

The Pirates are batting .253 with 753 runs, 1,381 hits and 182 home runs. They own a .331 on-base percentage and .404 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh's pitching staff carries a 4.15 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 1,466 strikeouts against 571 walks while holding opposing hitters to a .237 batting average. The Pirates also enter Saturday with a strong 41-26 record in day games, giving them another positive statistical indicator for this afternoon matchup.

Pittsburgh's offensive advantage is significant when these teams are compared directly. The Pirates have the higher batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage and have scored 44 more runs than Detroit. They have also produced five more home runs despite power not being the defining strength of either offense. Detroit owns the better season-long pitching numbers, but Pittsburgh's combination of superior recent form and the more established starting option makes the Pirates particularly interesting in this matchup.

Detroit Needs Its Pitching to Reverse Recent Form

Detroit enters the weekend at 74-85 overall and 40-38 at Comerica Park. The Tigers have struggled recently, dropping four of their last five completed games. Detroit lost consecutive home games to Washington by scores of 4-2 and 3-1 after recording a 9-2 victory in the series opener. Before that, the Tigers suffered road losses of 8-1 and 3-1 against the White Sox. Detroit has therefore scored only 14 runs over its last five games, and nine of those came in one victory.

The Tigers are batting .241 with 709 runs, 1,292 hits and 177 home runs this season. They have a .320 on-base percentage and .400 slugging percentage. Detroit's strongest statistical area has been its pitching staff, which owns a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 1,280 strikeouts against 499 walks while limiting opposing hitters to a .232 batting average. Those numbers are clearly superior to Pittsburgh's 4.15 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at the team level.

The problem is that Detroit's season-long pitching advantage is not necessarily reflected in Saturday's starting matchup. The Tigers' scheduled starter has worked only 3.2 innings this season, making his 12.27 ERA and 2.18 WHIP too small a sample to treat as a reliable representation of what Detroit will receive. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, sends out a starter with a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 85 innings. Detroit's bullpen and overall pitching depth could help close that gap, but its struggling offense puts additional pressure on the Tigers to prevent Pittsburgh from establishing an early lead.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Prediction

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

Pittsburgh gets the moneyline selection in Saturday's matchup. Detroit has the superior season-long pitching statistics, but the Pirates hold several important advantages specific to this game. Pittsburgh is 4-1 over its last five completed contests, owns a 41-26 record in day games and has the better offensive profile with a .253 batting average, .331 OBP and 753 runs. The biggest factor is the starting matchup. Pittsburgh's scheduled starter carries a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 85 innings, giving us a far more established body of work than Detroit's starter, who has made only 3.2 innings worth of appearances this season. With Pittsburgh also holding a 2-1 advantage in the completed season series, the Pirates are the preferred side.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The under becomes attractive at 8.5 or higher because neither team's recent offensive production suggests we should automatically expect a high-scoring game. Pittsburgh has won four of five but scored only 15 runs across those contests, while Detroit has produced 14 runs during its last five with nine coming in one game. Remove that 9-2 Detroit victory, and the Tigers have scored only five runs across the other four contests. Pittsburgh's scheduled starter enters with a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, while Detroit's full pitching staff owns a strong 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The uncertainty surrounding Detroit's starter prevents this from being an aggressive under at a lower number, but Under 8.5 or higher provides enough room to back a lower-scoring afternoon matchup.

Final Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Friday, September 25, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.