Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Thursday, August 13, 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Miami Marlins on Thursday at 1:10 PM ET at loanDepot park. Pittsburgh is 58-63, fifth in the NL Central and 16.5 games behind Milwaukee after Tuesday’s 2-0 loss to Miami. The Pirates have lost two straight and four of five. Miami is 61-59, third in the NL East and 11 games behind Atlanta. The Marlins have won three straight and four of five after Tuesday’s shutout victory. Miami leads the series 1-0 entering Wednesday’s game. Cash in a big winner with our free MLB picks.

Pittsburgh Pirates Looking to Rediscover Their Offense

Pittsburgh ranks third in MLB with a .256 batting average and has scored 602 runs with 145 home runs, a .333 on-base percentage and .410 slugging percentage. Nick Gonzales leads Pittsburgh with a .304 average and 133 hits, while Bryan Reynolds is batting .266 with a team-best .376 on-base percentage. Brandon Lowe provides the power with 25 home runs and 74 RBIs. The Pirates have struggled recently, scoring only 16 runs across their last five games and two runs in their last two losses.

Pittsburgh ranks 21st in MLB pitching with a 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP while opponents are batting .241. The Pirates have recorded 1,122 strikeouts, 23 saves, seven shutouts and 37 quality starts. The staff allowed only two runs Tuesday but received no offensive support. Pittsburgh is 28-33 away from home and 30-21 in day games. 

Injuries: Endy Rodriguez (Day-To-Day), Oneil Cruz (60-Day IL), Konnor Griffin (60-Day IL), Ryan O’Hearn (10-Day IL), Mitch Keller (60-Day IL).

Miami Marlins Riding Three-Game Winning Streak

Miami ranks seventh in MLB with a .250 batting average and has produced 526 runs, 121 home runs, a .326 on-base percentage, and a .404 slugging percentage. Otto Lopez leads the Marlins with a .318 average and 148 hits while adding nine homers, 53 RBIs and 23 stolen bases. Xavier Edwards is batting .284 with a .364 on-base percentage. Heriberto Hernandez leads the active power hitters with 16 home runs, while Kyle Stowers also has 16 but is currently on the injured list.

The Marlins rank 10th in MLB pitching with a 3.93 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while holding opponents to a .230 batting average. Miami has 1,007 strikeouts, 28 saves, 11 shutouts and 40 quality starts. The Marlins have allowed only three runs during their three-game winning streak, including consecutive shutouts of the Angels and Pirates. Miami is 37-24 at loanDepot Park and 29-22 in day games. 

Injuries: William Kempner (15-Day IL), Kyle Stowers (10-Day IL), Anthony Bender (15-Day IL), Max Meyer (15-Day IL), Andrew Nardi (60-Day IL).

Pitching Matchup

Pittsburgh Pirates – Braxton Ashcraft

Ashcraft is 11-5 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 132.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 121 hits, 32 walks, and 19 home runs while recording 145 strikeouts. His ability to avoid walks will be important against a Miami lineup carrying a .326 on-base percentage.

Miami Marlins – Tyler Phillips

Phillips enters at 3-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 93.1 innings. The right-hander has surrendered 88 hits and 39 walks while striking out 70 and allowing 12 home runs. Phillips owns the lower ERA, although Ashcraft holds the clear advantage in WHIP and strikeouts.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Game Pick

• Miami Marlins

Miami is the pick based on its current form, home record, and stronger overall pitching numbers. The Marlins have won three straight while allowing only three total runs, including Tuesday’s 2-0 shutout of Pittsburgh. Miami is also 37-24 at loanDepot park, while Pittsburgh enters at 28-33 on the road. Ashcraft has the better WHIP in Thursday’s pitching matchup, but Miami owns a 3.93 team ERA compared with Pittsburgh’s 4.32. With the Pirates dropping four of five, the Marlins are the better play at home.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Over/Under Pick

• Under

The under is the preferred play, with both pitching staffs showing reasons to expect another lower-scoring game. Miami has surrendered only three runs during its three-game winning streak and owns a 3.93 team ERA with a .230 opponent batting average. Phillips carries a 3.47 ERA, while Ashcraft has a 1.16 WHIP with 145 strikeouts against only 32 walks. Pittsburgh has scored just two runs over its last two games, including Tuesday’s shutout. Those recent scoring and pitching numbers favor the under Thursday.