Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Tuesday August 11 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates head to loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, to face the Miami Marlins on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh enters at 58-62 overall and 28-32 on the road, while Miami is 60-59 overall and an impressive 36-24 at home. The Marlins lead the season series 2-1 after taking two of three meetings in Pittsburgh in June. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions.

Starting Pitchers

Paul Skenes gets the start for Pittsburgh with a 9-10 record, 3.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 129.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 109 hits and 36 walks while striking out 162 and surrendering 13 home runs. Miami counters with Eury Perez, who is 5-9 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 109.2 innings. Perez has allowed only 82 hits with 42 walks, 121 strikeouts and 13 home runs. Both starters have pitched considerably better than their win-loss records suggest.

Pirates Need Skenes to Stop the Slide

Pittsburgh comes into Miami having lost four of its last five games, including an 11-1 loss to the Mets on Sunday. The Pirates did produce a 9-0 victory over New York on Saturday but dropped the other two games against the Mets after losing consecutive games at Milwaukee. Pittsburgh is 58-62 overall and has struggled to gain traction away from home with a 28-32 road record.

The Pirates have actually produced respectable offensive numbers over the full season, batting .256 with a .334 on-base percentage and .412 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh has scored 602 runs, collected 1,064 hits and hit 145 home runs. Pitching has been the larger problem, as the Pirates own a 4.34 team ERA and 1.33 WHIP despite limiting opposing hitters to a .242 batting average.

Pittsburgh's clearest advantage Tuesday is having Skenes on the mound. His 162 strikeouts in 129.2 innings give the Pirates a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon, while his 1.12 WHIP indicates much stronger performance than his 9-10 record suggests. The question is whether Pittsburgh can give him enough support after scoring three runs or fewer in three of its last five games.

Marlins Return Home With Momentum

Miami has won its last two games and enters this matchup at 60-59 overall. The Marlins demolished the Angels 12-3 on Sunday after shutting them out 7-0 Saturday. Miami has split its last five overall, but its 36-24 record at loanDepot park provides a substantial home-field edge compared with Pittsburgh's losing road record.

The Marlins are batting .251 with a .326 on-base percentage and .405 slugging percentage this season. They have scored 524 runs while recording 993 hits and 120 home runs. Miami trails Pittsburgh in most of the major offensive categories, but its pitching staff has been better, posting a 3.97 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .231 average.

Perez gives Miami an opportunity to turn this into the type of game that suits the Marlins. His 3.61 ERA is better than Skenes' 3.96 mark, while his 1.13 WHIP is nearly identical. Miami also owns the superior bullpen-and-staff profile based on its season ERA and WHIP, making the Marlins dangerous if Perez can keep Pittsburgh quiet through the middle innings.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Miami is the side to back at home. Pittsburgh has the more productive offense over the full season and Skenes provides the Pirates with a strong starting-pitching argument, but Miami has several advantages that become important in what projects as a competitive game. The Marlins are 36-24 at loanDepot park, have won two straight and already hold a 2-1 advantage in the season series. Perez's 3.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP compare favorably with Skenes, while Miami owns the better overall pitching numbers with a 3.97 ERA and 1.25 WHIP compared with Pittsburgh's 4.34 and 1.33. Take the Miami Marlins on the moneyline.

Total Pick: Under 8.5

The Under 8.5 is the stronger total position with Skenes and Perez starting. Skenes has struck out 162 hitters in 129.2 innings while carrying a 1.12 WHIP, and Perez has allowed only 82 hits through 109.2 innings with a 3.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Pittsburgh has also scored three runs or fewer in three of its last five games, while Miami's offense has produced only 524 runs for the season despite exploding against the Angels over the weekend. With two capable starters and Miami owning the stronger overall pitching staff, take the Under 8.5 if that number is available.

This Preview was written prior to game play on Monday.