Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Monday, July 20, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Pittsburgh Pirates will visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, on Monday, July 20, 2026, with the opening pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. MLB.TV will provide coverage of the matchup. Pittsburgh enters with a 51-48 record, while New York stands at 54-43 and holds a 53.6% chance of winning according to ESPN Analytics. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers
Braxton Ashcraft is scheduled to start for Pittsburgh, while New York’s starter is listed as Undecided. Ashcraft enters with a 9-3 record, a 3.49 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP across 113.1 innings. He has allowed 99 hits and 14 home runs while recording 128 strikeouts against 27 walks. His individual ERA and WHIP are both better than Pittsburgh’s overall team marks of 4.30 and 1.32.
Pittsburgh Brings a Productive Offense to the Bronx
Pittsburgh enters Monday’s game with a 51-48 overall record and an even 24-24 record on the road. The Pirates have won four of their last five games. They recently lost 5-3 at Cleveland after earning a decisive 7-1 victory in another meeting with the Guardians. Pittsburgh also recently won three consecutive home games over Milwaukee, recording victories by scores of 14-5, 3-2, and 7-6. The Pirates have scored at least seven runs in three of their last five contests.
The Pirates are batting .263 with 526 runs, 903 hits, and 128 home runs. Pittsburgh owns a .341 on-base percentage and a .427 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff has recorded a 4.30 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while issuing 360 walks and collecting 906 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .239 against Pittsburgh. The Pirates also hold a strong 27-17 record in day games.
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Pittsburgh’s most prominent strength is an offense that leads New York in several supplied categories. The Pirates have the higher batting average, more runs, more hits, a better on-base percentage, and a slightly higher slugging percentage. Pittsburgh has scored 63 more runs and collected 142 more hits than the Yankees. The concern rests with its pitching staff, which has the higher ERA and WHIP and has issued considerably more walks.
New York Relies on Pitching and Recent Momentum
New York comes into the matchup with a 54-43 overall record and a 23-21 record at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have won four of their last five games. They recently lost 2-1 at home against Los Angeles after winning three consecutive road games over Washington by scores of 5-3, 4-2, and 5-3. New York also recently earned a commanding 12-4 road victory over Tampa Bay. The Yankees have allowed three runs or fewer in four of their last five games.
The Yankees are batting .237 with 463 runs, 761 hits, and 142 home runs. New York carries a .317 on-base percentage and a .423 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff owns a 3.38 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP with 288 walks and 842 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .228 against the Yankees. New York has posted a 20-15 record during day games.
The Yankees’ clearest advantage is their ability to prevent runs. New York’s team ERA is 0.92 lower than Pittsburgh’s, while its WHIP is 0.13 lower. The Yankees have also issued 72 fewer walks and held opposing hitters to a batting average that is 11 points lower. Pittsburgh has the better offensive statistics in most supplied categories, but New York’s pitching numbers provide a direct counter to that production. The Yankees also have 14 more home runs despite playing two fewer games.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Pick
- Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline
New York is my moneyline selection for Monday’s matchup. The Yankees have the better overall record, own a winning record at home, and have won four of their last five games. Pittsburgh has also won four of five, but the Pirates are only 24-24 on the road. The strongest reason to back New York is its pitching advantage, as the Yankees have the lower ERA, lower WHIP, lower opponent batting average, and fewer walks. ESPN Analytics also gives New York a 53.6% chance of winning compared with 46.4% for Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Total Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. I favor the under because New York has allowed three runs or fewer in four consecutive games, while its last four contests have each finished with eight combined runs or fewer. Pittsburgh’s scheduled starter enters with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, and two of the Pirates’ last three games have produced exactly eight combined runs. With New York carrying a 3.38 team ERA and Pittsburgh presenting strong supplied numbers for its scheduled starter, I expect the scoring to remain below this number.
Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Sunday.
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