Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, July 21, 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to face the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York, on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh enters the contest with a 52-48 record, while New York stands at 55-44. The matchup predictor gives the Yankees a 53.6% chance to win compared with 46.4% for the Pirates. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before the game begins.

Starting Pitchers for Pittsburgh and New York

Bubba Chandler is scheduled to start for Pittsburgh against Will Warren for New York. Chandler enters with a 3-8 record, a 4.77 ERA, and a 1.45 WHIP across 94.1 innings. He has allowed 82 hits and 10 home runs while recording 85 strikeouts and issuing 55 walks. Warren is 7-4 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP through 98.1 innings. He has surrendered 101 hits and 14 home runs while collecting 96 strikeouts and allowing 33 walks. New York’s starter holds the better record, ERA, WHIP, and strikeout total, while Pittsburgh’s starter has allowed fewer hits and home runs.

Pittsburgh Arrives With Productive Offensive Numbers

The Pirates enter Tuesday’s contest at 52-48 overall and 25-24 on the road. Pittsburgh recently earned two 7-1 victories over Cleveland while losing the other meeting 5-3. Before that series, the Pirates recently recorded wins of 14-5 and 3-2 over Milwaukee. Pittsburgh has won four of its last five games, scoring at least seven runs in three of those victories.

Pittsburgh is batting .263 with 533 runs, 914 hits, and 129 home runs. The Pirates have generated a .341 on-base percentage and a .428 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.26 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with 362 walks and 917 strikeouts. Opposing hitters have batted .239 against Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 24-31 in night games.

The Pirates’ primary strength is their offensive production. Pittsburgh holds the advantage over New York in batting average, runs, hits, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. The Pirates have scored 66 more runs and collected 141 more hits, although they have hit 15 fewer home runs. Their recent scoring also provides encouragement, as Pittsburgh has produced 38 runs across its last five contests.

New York Counters With Stronger Run Prevention

The Yankees come into the matchup with a 55-44 overall record and a 24-22 record at Yankee Stadium. New York recently won 2-1 over Los Angeles but also lost 8-2 and 2-1 in that matchup. Before those games, the Yankees recently earned victories of 5-3 and 4-2 over Washington. New York has won three of its last five games and is two games above .500 at home.

New York owns a .236 team batting average with 467 runs, 773 hits, and 144 home runs. The Yankees have posted a .316 on-base percentage and a .422 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has recorded a 3.40 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP while issuing 299 walks and collecting 863 strikeouts. Opponents are batting .227 against New York, and the Yankees are 35-28 in night games.

The Yankees’ greatest strength in this matchup is their pitching. New York holds a 3.40 team ERA compared with Pittsburgh’s 4.26 mark, while its 1.19 WHIP is also better than the Pirates’ 1.31. The Yankees have issued 63 fewer walks and held opposing hitters to a lower batting average. New York also brings the stronger starting-pitching numbers into the contest, providing another potential counter to Pittsburgh’s productive offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Pick

• Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

New York is the selection in a matchup between teams separated by only 2.5 games in the standings. Pittsburgh has the better offensive numbers and has won four of its last five games, but the Yankees hold meaningful advantages in team ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, and walks allowed. New York also has the stronger starting-pitching profile and receives a 53.6% winning probability from the matchup predictor. Those pitching advantages support the Yankees at home.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Total Pick

• Pick: Under

I would take the under if the total is set at 8.5. New York has a 3.40 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .227 opponent batting average. Four of the Yankees’ last five games finished with eight or fewer combined runs, including two games that ended 2-1. Pittsburgh has been scoring effectively, but New York’s run-prevention numbers are strong enough to support a lower-scoring projection. I expect the Yankees’ pitching advantages to help keep the final total below the proposed number.

Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Monday.