Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, July 22, 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York, on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. The game is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV and one additional option. Pittsburgh enters with a 52-49 record, while New York is 56-44. ESPN Analytics gives the Yankees a 56.7% chance to win and the Pirates a 43.3% probability. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before making any wagers on Wednesday’s matchup, be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers Take the Mound in the Bronx

Mitch Keller is scheduled to start for Pittsburgh and carries a 6-7 record with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. The right-hander has pitched 103.1 innings, allowing 102 hits, 35 walks, and 13 home runs while recording 77 strikeouts. Gerrit Cole is the probable starter for New York. The right-hander enters at 3-5 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP across 55 innings. He has surrendered 52 hits, 12 walks, and nine home runs while collecting 55 strikeouts.

Pittsburgh Brings a Productive Offense on the Road

Pittsburgh enters Wednesday with a 52-49 overall record and an even 25-25 mark away from home. The Pirates are 3-2 across their last five games, although they recently lost to New York 8-5. Pittsburgh recently won over Cleveland twice by identical 7-1 scores and defeated Milwaukee 14-5. Its other loss during the five-game span was a 5-3 result against Cleveland. The Pirates scored at least five runs in four of those five contests and reached seven runs or more in each of their three victories.

The Pirates are batting .263 with 923 hits, 538 runs, and 130 home runs. Pittsburgh owns a .341 on-base percentage and a .427 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff carries a 4.30 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while issuing 363 walks and recording 925 strikeouts. Opposing hitters have produced a .240 batting average against Pittsburgh. The Pirates also have a 28-17 record in day games.

Pittsburgh’s clearest strength is its offensive production. The Pirates hold advantages over New York in batting average, hits, runs, and on-base percentage. Pittsburgh has scored 63 more runs and collected 139 more hits than the Yankees while batting 26 percentage points higher. The Pirates have also demonstrated that scoring ability recently, producing 36 runs across their last five games. The concern is a pitching staff whose 4.30 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are both higher than New York’s corresponding numbers.

New York Leans on Pitching and Power at Yankee Stadium

New York comes into the matchup with a 56-44 overall record and a 25-22 record at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are 3-2 over their last five games after recently winning over Pittsburgh 8-5. New York also recently won over Los Angeles 2-1 and Washington 5-3. Its two losses during this period were both against Los Angeles, with the Yankees falling 8-2 and 2-1. Four of New York’s last five games were decided by three runs or fewer.

The Yankees are batting .237 with 784 hits, 475 runs, and 146 home runs. New York owns a .316 on-base percentage and a .423 slugging percentage. The pitching staff has recorded a 3.42 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, with 302 walks and 873 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are batting .228 against the Yankees. New York has gone 20-16 during day games.

New York’s most important strength is its run prevention. The Yankees hold a sizable 0.88 advantage in team ERA and have the lower WHIP by 0.13. New York has also allowed a lower opposing batting average and issued 61 fewer walks. Its offense does not match Pittsburgh’s overall batting production, but the Yankees have hit 16 more home runs and hold a nearly identical slugging percentage. That combination of stronger pitching and greater home-run production provides New York with a path to another victory.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Pick

• Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

I am backing New York on the moneyline. Pittsburgh has the better batting average, on-base percentage, hit total, and run total, but the Yankees own the more convincing pitching numbers. New York’s 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are considerably better than Pittsburgh’s 4.30 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. The Yankees also have the lower opposing batting average and have allowed fewer walks. New York recently defeated Pittsburgh 8-5 and holds a 56.7% probability in the matchup predictor. The Pirates should remain competitive with their offensive production, but the Yankees’ pitching advantage makes New York the preferred side.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Total Pick

• Take the over if the total is set at 8.5.

I would take the over at 8.5 based on the supplied offensive and pitching numbers. Pittsburgh has scored 36 runs over its last five games, including at least seven runs in three of those contests. The Pirates are batting .263 and have produced 538 runs this season, while New York has hit 146 home runs. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff enters with a 4.30 ERA, and its scheduled starter has a 5.14 ERA. The Yankees scored eight runs in the recent meeting between these teams, which ended with 13 combined runs. I expect both offenses to contribute enough for the total to reach at least nine.

Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates 4

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Tuesday.