Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 2, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday at 12:35 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh is 43-43 and fourth in the NL Central, while Philadelphia is 48-38 and second in the NL East, 2.5 games behind Atlanta. The clubs have split the first two games of this four-game series, with Pittsburgh winning 11-7 before Philadelphia responded with an 8-0 shutout. Check out today's free MLB picks.
Pirates Looking to Finish Series on a High Note
Pittsburgh has played inconsistent baseball over the past week after splitting its previous four games. The Pirates continue to hover around the .500 mark thanks to an offense that has produced consistently, but pitching has been the biggest obstacle in their push up the NL Central standings. The club is batting .258 while scoring 440 runs through 86 games, although run prevention has been far less reliable.
Brandon Lowe leads Pittsburgh with 20 home runs and 57 RBI, while Bryan Reynolds continues to anchor the lineup with a .282 batting average and .398 on-base percentage. Nick Gonzales has been one of the team's most consistent hitters, batting .294, and Oneil Cruz has added 14 home runs along with 21 stolen bases. Pittsburgh has enough offensive talent to compete with anyone when the lineup strings together quality at-bats.
Injuries: Wilber Dotel, Jared Jones, Chris Devenski, Sean Sullivan, Spencer Horwitz.
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Phillies Chasing Another Home Victory
Philadelphia has continued to play well at Citizens Bank Park with a 24-20 home record while remaining within striking distance of first place in the NL East. After dropping the series opener, the Phillies responded with a dominant 8-0 victory behind a balanced offensive performance and another strong effort from the pitching staff.
Kyle Schwarber continues to power the offense with 30 home runs and 55 RBI while posting a .583 slugging percentage. Brandon Marsh has been outstanding all season, batting .317 with 95 hits, while Bryce Harper has contributed 20 home runs, 54 RBI, and a .375 on-base percentage. Philadelphia has already hit 114 home runs this season, giving the lineup the ability to change a game with one swing.
Injuries: Liover Peguero, Carson DeMartini, Andrew Walling, Mark Kolozsvary, Brad Keller.
Pitching Matchup
Pittsburgh Pirates โ Jared Jones (RHP)
Jones is 1-1 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 25 innings this season. The right-hander has struck out 25 batters but has also allowed five home runs, and he continues to work his way back after spending time on the injured list.
Philadelphia Phillies โ Alan Rangel (RHP)
Rangel is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 12 innings. Although he has made only two appearances, he has allowed just one home run while walking only two batters and has shown solid control early in his opportunity.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick
- Philadelphia Phillies Moneylineย
Philadelphia is the better play because the Phillies have been more consistent throughout the season, continue to play well at Citizens Bank Park, and feature the stronger overall lineup. Schwarber, Harper, and Marsh give Philadelphia multiple hitters capable of producing big innings, while Pittsburgh has struggled to consistently support its pitching staff. Jared Jones is still searching for rhythm after an injury-shortened season, and Philadelphia's power gives the home team an edge against a pitcher who has surrendered five home runs in only 25 innings. With the Phillies also owning the deeper bullpen, Philadelphia is in a strong position to secure another home victory.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Over/Under Pick
- Overย
The over is the choice here because both lineups have enough power to put pressure on the opposing pitching staffs. Pittsburgh owns one of the better team batting averages in the National League, while Philadelphia has already hit 114 home runs this season and has consistently produced offense at home. Jones has allowed plenty of hard contact in limited work, and Rangel still has very little major league experience. With both teams capable of scoring in bunches and neither starting pitcher carrying a significant workload, this matchup has a good chance to produce enough offense to cash over the total.
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