Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Monday August 24, 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates head to Petco Park in San Diego, California, to face the San Diego Padres on Monday, August 24, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM ET, with MLB.TV carrying the game. Pittsburgh enters at 63-68 overall and 29-36 on the road, while San Diego is 70-60 overall and a strong 39-26 at home. The Pirates have lost two straight and are 2-3 over their last five, while the Padres have won two in a row and three of their last five. San Diego also leads the season series 2-1. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Bettors looking for more daily baseball analysis can check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers

Pittsburgh is expected to start Braxton Ashcraft, who enters at 13-5 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 149.1 innings. Ashcraft has allowed 128 hits while striking out 159 and walking only 33, with 21 home runs surrendered. San Diego counters with Robbie Ray, who is 11-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 137.2 innings. Ray has allowed 113 hits while recording 117 strikeouts and issuing 68 walks, with 18 home runs allowed. The ERA edge belongs to San Diego, but Ashcraft has the stronger WHIP, more strikeouts and substantially better command numbers, making this a fairly competitive starting pitching matchup.

Pittsburgh Brings the Better Offensive Numbers

The Pirates enter Monday at 63-68 and have dropped back-to-back one-run games, losing 5-4 in extra innings and 4-3. Pittsburgh is 2-3 over its last five games, with victories of 4-3 and 4-1 mixed in with losses of 8-5, 5-4 and 4-3. The Pirates have been less effective away from home, where they are 29-36.

Pittsburgh is batting .255 with a .331 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage. The Pirates have scored 653 runs, collected 1,150 hits and hit 156 home runs. Their pitching staff owns a 4.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP while opponents are batting .240.

The offensive numbers favor Pittsburgh in several areas. The Pirates have scored 97 more runs than San Diego, have a higher team batting average and on-base percentage, and also own the better slugging percentage. The challenge is turning those advantages into road wins against a Padres team that has played very well at Petco Park.

San Diego Looks to Stay Hot at Home

The Padres enter at 70-60 and have won two straight games, beating Minnesota 6-2 and 7-5. San Diego is 3-2 across its last five, with another victory of 5-2 and losses of 4-2 and 2-1. The Padres have been especially dependable at home, where they are 39-26 this season.

San Diego is batting .238 with a .315 on-base percentage and .389 slugging percentage. The Padres have scored 556 runs, collected 1,020 hits and hit 145 home runs. Their pitching staff carries a 4.04 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while opponents are batting .243.

San Diego's biggest advantages are home field and pitching. The Padres have the lower team ERA and WHIP, and their projected starter enters with a 3.20 ERA. While Pittsburgh owns the better offensive numbers, San Diego has been more successful overall and much more reliable at home, giving the Padres a strong case in the opener.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction

Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline

San Diego is the preferred side because of its 39-26 home record, better overall mark and slightly stronger season-long pitching profile. Pittsburgh has the better offensive statistics and Ashcraft has pitched well, so this is not a one-sided matchup, but the Padres enter on a two-game winning streak and have already taken two of three from Pittsburgh this season. Ray's 3.20 ERA gives San Diego a solid starting point, and the combination of home-field success and the stronger overall record makes the Padres the more attractive moneyline side.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the Under if the total is set at 8.5. Both projected starters enter with ERAs below 3.70, and Ashcraft's 1.08 WHIP gives Pittsburgh a strong chance to limit San Diego's scoring opportunities. The Padres also own a 4.04 team ERA, while four of Pittsburgh's last five games have finished with nine combined runs or fewer. The first three meetings between these clubs produced totals of five, eight and 10 runs, and with two capable starters on the mound, the lower-scoring side of the market is the preferred play.

This game preview was completed prior to game play on Monday.