Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Tuesday August 25 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California, on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM ET with coverage on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. Pittsburgh enters at 63-69 overall and 29-37 on the road, while San Diego is 71-60 overall and an impressive 40-26 at home. The Pirates have dropped three straight games, while the Padres have won three in a row. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks throughout the season for more baseball betting predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Pittsburgh is expected to hand the ball to Paul Skenes, who enters at 9-11 with a 3.95 ERA and excellent 1.14 WHIP over 139 innings. Skenes has surrendered 118 hits and only 14 home runs while recording 171 strikeouts against 41 walks. San Diego counters with Michael King, who is 8-9 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 149 innings. King has allowed 117 hits, struck out 128 and walked 58 while surrendering 18 home runs. King has the lower ERA, but Skenes owns advantages in WHIP, strikeouts and walks while allowing fewer home runs.

Pirates Look to Stop Their Slide

Pittsburgh enters Tuesday at 63-69 overall and has struggled away from home with a 29-37 road record. The Pirates have lost three straight after being swept in their latest three-game set, falling 4-0, 4-3 and 5-4 in 10 innings. Those results followed consecutive victories by scores of 4-3 and 4-1, leaving Pittsburgh 2-3 across its last five.

The Pirates have actually produced considerably better offensive numbers than their overall record might suggest. Pittsburgh is batting .254 with 1,152 hits, 653 runs and 156 home runs. The Pirates also own a .331 on-base percentage and .407 slugging percentage, giving them an advantage over San Diego in every one of those categories.

The weakness has been run prevention. Pittsburgh carries a 4.29 team ERA and 1.32 WHIP, although opponents are batting only .240 against the staff. Having its scheduled starter on the mound could help minimise that concern. The Pirates have a major strikeout weapon available for this matchup, and their combination of starting pitching and offensive production makes them dangerous despite the current losing streak.

Padres Surging at Petco Park

San Diego comes into this matchup at 71-60 and holds a 40-26 record at Petco Park. The Padres have won four of their last five and three straight, with the current winning streak featuring victories of 6-2, 7-5 and 8-1. They have outscored their opponents 21-8 during those three victories.

San Diego is batting .239 with 1,030 hits, 564 runs and 148 home runs. The Padres carry a .316 on-base percentage and .391 slugging percentage. Those offensive numbers trail Pittsburgh's across the board, but San Diego has been the more successful club overall and has been especially effective at home.

The Padres have been stronger on the pitching side, posting a 4.01 team ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Opponents are batting .242 against them. Their scheduled starter's 3.38 ERA is also the best mark between Tuesday's two starters, giving San Diego a legitimate chance to control a Pittsburgh offence that was shut out in its most recent game.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

This is one matchup where the records alone don't tell the entire story. San Diego has the better overall record, a 40-26 home mark and considerably better recent form, but Pittsburgh has the type of starting-pitching matchup that can neutralise those advantages. The Pirates' scheduled starter owns a 1.14 WHIP with 171 strikeouts in 139 innings, and Pittsburgh has the better season numbers in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, OBP and slugging percentage. With ESPN's matchup projection separating the teams by only a narrow margin, there is enough here to take the upset. Pittsburgh is the moneyline pick.

Pick: Under 7.5

The starting pitchers drive the total selection. Pittsburgh's scheduled starter has allowed only 14 home runs in 139 innings while maintaining a 1.14 WHIP, and San Diego's starter owns a 3.38 ERA while allowing just 117 hits through 149 innings. Pittsburgh has also been held to seven combined runs during its three-game losing streak, including a shutout in its latest game. This has the ingredients for a lower-scoring pitching battle at Petco Park. Take the Under if the total is set at 7.5.

This game preview was completed before play on Monday, August 24, 2026.