Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Friday August 28 2026

The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri, to face the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday, August 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, with coverage on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh enters at 65-70 overall and 31-38 on the road, while St. Louis is 66-68 overall and 32-36 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing any wagers, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Pittsburgh is expected to start Jared Jones, who enters at 2-5 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 68 innings. He has allowed 59 hits while striking out 77 and walking 26, with 11 home runs surrendered. St. Louis is expected to counter with Quinn Mathews, who is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.79 WHIP through 14 innings. He has allowed 18 hits while recording 13 strikeouts and seven walks. The starting-pitching numbers give Pittsburgh the clearer advantage entering Friday's matchup.

Pirates Look to Take Advantage of Struggling St. Louis

Pittsburgh enters Friday at 65-70 and has gone 2-3 over its last five games. The Pirates recently dropped a 3-0 decision in San Diego after winning the previous two games of that series, 1-0 and 3-2.

The Pirates are batting .252 with 657 runs, 1,172 hits and 158 home runs. They own a .329 on-base percentage and .404 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh's pitching staff carries a 4.22 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, while opponents are batting .238.

Pittsburgh's offensive numbers are stronger than St. Louis across most major categories. The Pirates have scored 64 more runs, collected 86 more hits and hit 19 more home runs. They also enter with the better pitching matchup on paper, giving them an opportunity to reverse their struggles in the season series.

Cardinals Trying to End Five-Game Losing Streak

St. Louis enters at 66-68 and has lost five consecutive games. The Cardinals have allowed 46 runs during that five-game skid, including losses of 12-3, 6-4, 13-1 and 8-7 over their last four contests.

The Cardinals are batting .241 with 593 runs, 1,086 hits and 139 home runs. They carry a .316 on-base percentage and .382 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has posted a 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, while opponents are batting .254.

St. Louis does own a 5-2 advantage in the season series, but recent form is difficult to ignore. The Cardinals have struggled badly to prevent runs during their losing streak, and Friday's projected starting matchup does not offer much reassurance.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

Pittsburgh is the preferred side. The Pirates have the better offensive profile, the stronger recent form and the more favorable projected starting-pitching matchup. St. Louis has controlled the season series, but the Cardinals enter on a five-game losing streak and have been giving up runs at an alarming rate. With Pittsburgh holding advantages in both team hitting numbers and the starting matchup, take the Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline.

Pick: Over 8.5

The total was not available at the time of writing, but take the Over if the number is set at 8.5. St. Louis has allowed at least six runs in each of its last five games, while its projected starter enters with a 6.43 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Pittsburgh's offense has also produced stronger season-long numbers than the Cardinals. With both pitching staffs carrying ERAs above 4.20 and St. Louis struggling badly to keep opponents off the scoreboard, this matchup has a path to nine or more combined runs.

This preview was completed before play on Thursday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.